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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Shane Burgos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1364

Shane BurgosvsGodofredo PepeyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · Saturday, July 22, 2017Uniondale, New York, USA

Official fight result

Shane Burgos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Shane Burgos wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Shane Burgos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shane Burgos at -700 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shane Burgos has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Shane Burgos

Red Corner

Godofredo Pepey

Blue Corner

-700

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+500

(17%)

1496

Elo

1364

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'7"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shane BurgosW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Nov 19

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 20

KOvs Edson Barboza · May 21

vs Billy Quarantillo · Nov 21

vs Charles Jourdain · Jul 22

latest

Godofredo Pepey

oldest →

SUBvs Dashon Johnson · Sep 14

SUBvs Andre Fili · Mar 15

vs Darren Elkins · Jul 16

SUBvs Mike de la Torre · Sep 16

KOvs Mirsad Bektic · Jan 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shane BurgosMetricGodofredo Pepey

7.40

Strikes / min

2.32

6.78

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

56%

Strike defense

47%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.37

91%

Takedown defense

35%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62Δ 1.53 — meaningful gap-0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shane BurgosGodofredo Pepey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shane Burgos(10 fights)Godofredo Pepey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.7|Blue -132.7

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shane BurgosTargetGodofredo Pepey

By target zone

49% acc · 85%

Head

25% acc · 78%

75% acc · 9%

Body

56% acc · 18%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

47% acc · 75%

Distance

28% acc · 96%

81% acc · 13%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

71% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shane Burgos rounds

even

Godofredo Pepey rounds

Round 1Shane Burgos edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:10

Knockdowns2

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Shane Burgos edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:24

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Shane Burgos edged it

Sig. strikes50

Takedowns0

Control0:23

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

102 / 197

Sig Strikes

51 / 177

51%

Sig Str %

28.3%

144 / 243

Total Strikes

52 / 178

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 14

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

1:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Godofredo Pepey	15 / 56	16 / 57	0 / 5
1	Shane Burgos	22 / 44	29 / 51	1 / 1
2	Godofredo Pepey	21 / 71	21 / 71	0 / 5
2	Shane Burgos	30 / 61	38 / 72	0 / 0
3	Godofredo Pepey	15 / 50	15 / 50	0 / 4
3	Shane Burgos	50 / 92	77 / 120	0 / 0

Shane Burgos

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Godofredo Pepey

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11