← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Edson Barboza won · KO/TKO

Elo1496

Elo1480

Shane BurgosvsEdson BarbozaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · Saturday, May 15, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Edson Barboza won

KO/TKO

Style matchupShane Burgos: Pressure fightervsEdson Barboza: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Shane Burgos wins(72.5%)

Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shane Burgos at -147 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Shane Burgos has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Shane Burgos has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Shane Burgos

Red Corner

Edson Barboza

Blue Corner

-147

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+127

(44%)

1496

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shane BurgosW2 streak

oldest →

vs Cub Swanson · May 19

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Nov 19

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 20

vs Billy Quarantillo · Nov 21

vs Charles Jourdain · Jul 22

latest

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shane BurgosMetricEdson Barboza

7.40

Strikes / min

4.14

6.78

Strikes absorbed / min

4.68

56%

Strike defense

55%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.43

91%

Takedown defense

73%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shane BurgosEdson Barboza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shane Burgos(10 fights)Edson Barboza(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.6|Blue -16.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shane BurgosTargetEdson Barboza

By target zone

31% acc · 51%

Head

38% acc · 52%

73% acc · 30%

Body

82% acc · 14%

94% acc · 19%

Leg

83% acc · 34%

By position

45% acc · 100%

Distance

51% acc · 98%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shane Burgos rounds

even

Edson Barboza rounds

Round 1Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:03

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 180

Sig Strikes

98 / 191

42.3%

Sig Str %

55%

80 / 180

Total Strikes

98 / 191

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Edson Barboza	41 / 83	41 / 83	0 / 0
1	Shane Burgos	33 / 79	33 / 79	0 / 0
2	Edson Barboza	39 / 82	39 / 82	0 / 0
2	Shane Burgos	40 / 83	40 / 83	0 / 0
3	Edson Barboza	18 / 26	18 / 26	0 / 0
3	Shane Burgos	7 / 18	7 / 18	0 / 0

Shane Burgos

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32