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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Shane Burgos won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1496

Elo1430

Shane BurgosvsCharles RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2017Buffalo, New York, USA

Official fight result

Shane Burgos won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:59

Style matchupShane Burgos: Pressure fightervsCharles Rosa: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Shane Burgos wins(68.2%)

Actual result: Shane Burgos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shane Burgos at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Shane Burgos has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).
Shane Burgos has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Shane Burgos

Red Corner

Charles Rosa

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1496

Elo

1430

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shane BurgosW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Nov 19

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 20

KOvs Edson Barboza · May 21

vs Billy Quarantillo · Nov 21

vs Charles Jourdain · Jul 22

latest

Charles RosaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21

vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21

vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21

vs TJ Brown · Jan 22

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shane BurgosMetricCharles Rosa

7.40

Strikes / min

3.08

6.78

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

56%

Strike defense

47%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.67

91%

Takedown defense

38%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap-0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shane BurgosCharles Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shane Burgos(10 fights)Charles Rosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +66.0|Blue -66.0

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red -327.0|Blue +327.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shane BurgosTargetCharles Rosa

By target zone

41% acc · 71%

Head

24% acc · 53%

57% acc · 17%

Body

27% acc · 7%

82% acc · 12%

Leg

69% acc · 40%

By position

43% acc · 86%

Distance

33% acc · 99%

75% acc · 12%

Clinch

20% acc · 1%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shane Burgos rounds

even

Charles Rosa rounds

Round 1Charles Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:03

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Charles Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Shane Burgos edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 167

Sig Strikes

86 / 261

49.3%

Sig Str %

30.3%

98 / 190

Total Strikes

86 / 261

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 7

—

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

0:11

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Charles Rosa	38 / 109	38 / 109	0 / 2
1	Shane Burgos	27 / 73	27 / 74	0 / 0
2	Charles Rosa	38 / 107	38 / 107	1 / 3
2	Shane Burgos	25 / 58	45 / 79	0 / 0
3	Charles Rosa	10 / 45	10 / 45	0 / 2
3	Shane Burgos	25 / 36	26 / 37	0 / 0

Shane Burgos

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Charles Rosa

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13