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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Shane Burgos won · M-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1529

Shane BurgosvsCharles JourdainUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, July 16, 2022Elmont, New York, USA

Official fight result

Shane Burgos won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupShane Burgos: Pressure fightervsCharles Jourdain: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Shane Burgos wins(66.0%)

Actual result: Shane Burgos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shane Burgos at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Jourdain enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Shane Burgos has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charles Jourdain (52.9%).
Shane Burgos has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Shane Burgos

Red Corner

Charles Jourdain

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1496

Elo

1529

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shane Burgos

oldest →

vs Cub Swanson · May 19

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Nov 19

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 20

KOvs Edson Barboza · May 21

vs Billy Quarantillo · Nov 21

latest

Charles JourdainW3 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Woodson · Jan 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jun 24

SUBvs Victor Henry · Nov 24

SUBvs Davey Grant · Oct 25

DECvs Kyler Phillips · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shane BurgosMetricCharles Jourdain

7.40

Strikes / min

5.36

6.78

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

56%

Strike defense

56%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.38

91%

Takedown defense

46%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62evenly matched on net striking+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shane BurgosCharles Jourdain

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shane Burgos(10 fights)Charles Jourdain(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.0|Blue +33.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shane BurgosTargetCharles Jourdain

By target zone

34% acc · 38%

Head

50% acc · 64%

50% acc · 14%

Body

97% acc · 32%

95% acc · 48%

Leg

83% acc · 4%

By position

46% acc · 67%

Distance

51% acc · 60%

72% acc · 31%

Clinch

80% acc · 36%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shane Burgos rounds

even

Charles Jourdain rounds

Round 1Charles Jourdain edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:24

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 2Shane Burgos edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control4:02

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Charles Jourdain edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:59

84Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:27Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 80

Sig Strikes

113 / 188

50.3%

Sig Str %

54.7%

67 / 116

Total Strikes

161 / 241

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

44.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:25

Ctrl Time

2:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Jourdain	24 / 41	39 / 59	0 / 1	0
1	Shane Burgos	12 / 27	12 / 31	1 / 3	1
2	Charles Jourdain	5 / 11	7 / 13	0 / 0	0
2	Shane Burgos	4 / 8	28 / 39	1 / 1	2
3	Charles Jourdain	84 / 136	115 / 169	0 / 0	0
3	Shane Burgos	26 / 45	27 / 46	0 / 3	0

Shane Burgos

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Charles Jourdain

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15