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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Shane Burgos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1493

Billy Quarantillo editorial illustration

Shane BurgosvsBilly QuarantilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Saturday, November 6, 2021New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Shane Burgos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupShane Burgos: Pressure fightervsBilly Quarantillo: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Billy Quarantillo wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Shane Burgos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Billy Quarantillo at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Billy Quarantillo is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Shane Burgos has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Shane Burgos has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Shane Burgos has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Shane Burgos has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Shane Burgos

Red Corner

Billy Quarantillo

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1496

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shane Burgos

oldest →

vs Cub Swanson · May 19

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Nov 19

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 20

KOvs Edson Barboza · May 21

vs Charles Jourdain · Jul 22

latest

Billy QuarantilloL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Dec 22

KOvs Edson Barboza · Apr 23

vs Damon Jackson · Aug 23

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Mar 24

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shane BurgosMetricBilly Quarantillo

7.40

Strikes / min

7.44

6.78

Strikes absorbed / min

5.83

56%

Strike defense

42%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.47

91%

Takedown defense

61%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62evenly matched on net striking+1.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shane BurgosBilly Quarantillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shane Burgos(10 fights)Billy Quarantillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.1|Blue -3.1

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shane BurgosTargetBilly Quarantillo

By target zone

133

61% acc · 69%

Head

129

43% acc · 79%

86% acc · 17%

Body

72% acc · 17%

88% acc · 15%

Leg

78% acc · 4%

By position

162

64% acc · 84%

Distance

145

45% acc · 88%

86% acc · 16%

Clinch

70% acc · 12%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shane Burgos rounds

even

Billy Quarantillo rounds

Round 1Billy Quarantillo edged it

Sig. strikes54

Takedowns0

Control0:51

63Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Shane Burgos edged it

Sig. strikes82

Takedowns0

Control0:35

54Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 3Shane Burgos edged it

Sig. strikes57

Takedowns0

Control1:00

47Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

193 / 288

Sig Strikes

164 / 349

66%

Sig Str %

47.3%

232 / 329

Total Strikes

196 / 383

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 14

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:26

Ctrl Time

2:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Billy Quarantillo	63 / 131	81 / 150	0 / 2
1	Shane Burgos	54 / 81	68 / 96	0 / 0
2	Billy Quarantillo	54 / 130	57 / 133	0 / 2
2	Shane Burgos	82 / 114	85 / 117	0 / 0
3	Billy Quarantillo	47 / 88	58 / 100	0 / 10
3	Shane Burgos	57 / 93	79 / 116	0 / 0

Shane Burgos

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Billy Quarantillo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11