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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Lauren Mueller won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1377

Shana DobsonvsLauren MuellerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Saturday, April 14, 2018Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Lauren Mueller won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Shana Dobson wins(72.3%)

Actual result: Lauren Mueller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shana Dobson at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lauren Mueller enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Lauren Mueller has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Shana Dobson

Red Corner

Lauren Mueller

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1493

Elo

1377

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shana Dobson

oldest →

KOvs Ariel Beck · Dec 17

vs Sabina Mazo · Aug 19

KOvs Priscila Cachoeira · Feb 20

KOvs Mariya Agapova · Aug 20

KOvs Casey O'Neill · Feb 21

latest

Lauren MuellerL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Wu Yanan · Nov 18

vs Poliana Botelho · Apr 19

vs JJ Aldrich · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shana DobsonMetricLauren Mueller

3.34

Strikes / min

4.08

5.20

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

50%

Strike defense

58%

0.84

TDs / 15 min

0.70

14%

Takedown defense

71%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.86Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap+0.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shana DobsonLauren Mueller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shana Dobson(6 fights)Lauren Mueller(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +116.1|Blue -116.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shana DobsonTargetLauren Mueller

By target zone

22% acc · 50%

Head

26% acc · 53%

64% acc · 34%

Body

69% acc · 34%

92% acc · 16%

Leg

88% acc · 12%

By position

31% acc · 91%

Distance

37% acc · 93%

75% acc · 9%

Clinch

57% acc · 7%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shana Dobson rounds

even

Lauren Mueller rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:03

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 2Shana Dobson edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Lauren Mueller edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:41

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:56Control

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 206

Sig Strikes

58 / 156

33%

Sig Str %

36.7%

74 / 213

Total Strikes

70 / 171

1 / 4

TDs

2 / 2

16.5%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:44

Ctrl Time

2:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lauren Mueller	26 / 57	27 / 58	0 / 0
1	Shana Dobson	27 / 79	28 / 80	0 / 1
2	Lauren Mueller	15 / 55	16 / 56	0 / 0
2	Shana Dobson	21 / 72	21 / 72	0 / 0
3	Lauren Mueller	17 / 44	27 / 57	2 / 2
3	Shana Dobson	20 / 55	25 / 61	1 / 3

Shana Dobson

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Lauren Mueller

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4