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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Casey O'Neill won · KO/TKO

Elo1493

Elo1520

Shana DobsonvsCasey O'NeillUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Saturday, February 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Casey O'Neill won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Casey O'Neill wins(91.2%)

Actual result: Casey O'Neill wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Casey O'Neill at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Casey O'Neill is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Shana Dobson has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Casey O'Neill has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Shana Dobson

Red Corner

Casey O'Neill

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1493

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shana Dobson

oldest →

KOvs Ariel Beck · Dec 17

vs Lauren Mueller · Apr 18

vs Sabina Mazo · Aug 19

KOvs Priscila Cachoeira · Feb 20

KOvs Mariya Agapova · Aug 20

latest

Casey O'NeillW2 streak

oldest →

vs Roxanne Modafferi · Feb 22

vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 23

SUBvs Ariane da Silva · Dec 23

vs Luana Santos · Aug 24

KOvs Gabriella Fernandes · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shana DobsonMetricCasey O'Neill

3.34

Strikes / min

7.89

5.20

Strikes absorbed / min

5.53

50%

Strike defense

57%

0.84

TDs / 15 min

1.40

14%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.86Δ 4.22 — meaningful gap+2.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shana DobsonCasey O'Neill

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shana Dobson(6 fights)Casey O'Neill(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.5|Blue +27.5

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shana DobsonTargetCasey O'Neill

By target zone

43% acc · 56%

Head

71% acc · 90%

100% acc · 31%

Body

75% acc · 6%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

55% acc · 69%

Distance

71% acc · 35%

75% acc · 19%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

50% acc · 13%

Ground

72% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shana Dobson rounds

even

Casey O'Neill rounds

Round 1Casey O'Neill edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:13

32Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:53Control

Round 2Casey O'Neill edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 28

Sig Strikes

49 / 68

76.5%

Sig Str %

70%

27 / 42

Total Strikes

132 / 183

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 6

—

TD %

62.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

7:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Casey O'Neill	32 / 38	57 / 67	3 / 4	1
1	Shana Dobson	14 / 26	23 / 37	0 / 0	0
2	Casey O'Neill	17 / 30	75 / 116	1 / 2	0
2	Shana Dobson	2 / 2	4 / 5	0 / 0	0

Shana Dobson

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Casey O'Neill

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8