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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Shamil Gaziev won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1482

Shamil GazievvsThomas PetersenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Saturday, February 1, 2025Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Shamil Gaziev won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:12

Style matchupShamil Gaziev: Well-roundedvsThomas Petersen: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Shamil Gaziev wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Shamil Gaziev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shamil Gaziev at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shamil Gaziev is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Thomas Petersen has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Thomas Petersen (53.5%).
Shamil Gaziev has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Shamil Gaziev

Red Corner

Thomas Petersen

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+275

(27%)

1482

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shamil GazievL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Martin Buday · Dec 23

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Mar 24

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Aug 24

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Nov 25

KOvs Brando Pericic · May 26

latest

Thomas Petersen

oldest →

vs Mohammed Usman · Jul 24

vs Don'Tale Mayes · May 25

KOvs Vitor Petrino · Oct 25

DECvs Guilherme Pat · Apr 26

SUBvs Valter Walker · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shamil GazievMetricThomas Petersen

2.94

Strikes / min

3.10

4.92

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

45%

Strike defense

54%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

3.01

83%

Takedown defense

87%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.98Δ 2.47 — meaningful gap+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shamil GazievThomas Petersen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shamil Gaziev(6 fights)Thomas Petersen(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shamil GazievTargetThomas Petersen

By target zone

33% acc · 64%

Head

22% acc · 21%

100% acc · 36%

Body

88% acc · 37%

Leg

100% acc · 42%

By position

43% acc · 93%

Distance

58% acc · 95%

50% acc · 7%

Clinch

33% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shamil Gaziev rounds

even

Thomas Petersen rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 32

Sig Strikes

19 / 34

43%

Sig Str %

55%

14 / 32

Total Strikes

19 / 35

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Thomas Petersen	19 / 34	19 / 35	1 / 1	0
1	Shamil Gaziev	14 / 32	14 / 32	0 / 0	0

Shamil Gaziev

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5

Thomas Petersen

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7