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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Shamil Gaziev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1482

Shamil GazievvsDon'Tale MayesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Saturday, August 3, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Shamil Gaziev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Don'Tale Mayes wins(58.2%)

Actual result: Shamil Gaziev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Don'Tale Mayes at +750 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Don'Tale Mayes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Shamil Gaziev has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Shamil Gaziev has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Shamil Gaziev

Red Corner

Don'Tale Mayes

Blue Corner

-1450

(94%)

Vegas Odds

+750

(12%)

1482

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'6"

198.12 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shamil GazievL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Martin Buday · Dec 23

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Mar 24

KOvs Thomas Petersen · Feb 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Nov 25

KOvs Brando Pericic · May 26

latest

Don'Tale MayesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 23

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 23

vs Caio Machado · Apr 24

SUBvs Valter Walker · Feb 25

vs Thomas Petersen · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shamil GazievMetricDon'Tale Mayes

2.94

Strikes / min

3.22

4.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

45%

Strike defense

46%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

0.59

83%

Takedown defense

46%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.98Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shamil GazievDon'Tale Mayes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shamil Gaziev(6 fights)Don'Tale Mayes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shamil GazievTargetDon'Tale Mayes

By target zone

59% acc · 71%

Head

40% acc · 67%

100% acc · 26%

Body

56% acc · 19%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

48% acc · 39%

Distance

47% acc · 93%

88% acc · 48%

Clinch

40% acc · 7%

100% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shamil Gaziev rounds

even

Don'Tale Mayes rounds

Round 1Shamil Gaziev edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control4:32

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Shamil Gaziev edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control3:28

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Shamil Gaziev edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control3:58

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 46

Sig Strikes

27 / 58

58.7%

Sig Str %

47%

89 / 114

Total Strikes

57 / 95

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 2

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

11:58

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Don'Tale Mayes	12 / 17	12 / 20	0 / 0
1	Shamil Gaziev	8 / 13	24 / 35	1 / 2
2	Don'Tale Mayes	10 / 25	20 / 39	0 / 2
2	Shamil Gaziev	21 / 28	29 / 36	0 / 0
3	Don'Tale Mayes	5 / 16	25 / 36	0 / 0
3	Shamil Gaziev	2 / 5	36 / 43	1 / 1

Shamil Gaziev

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5

Don'Tale Mayes

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights10