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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Michal Oleksiejczuk won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1494
Shamil Gamzatov
Elo1508
Michal Oleksiejczuk editorial illustration

Shamil GamzatovvsMichal OleksiejczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Saturday, October 30, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Michal Oleksiejczuk won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:31

Style matchupShamil Gamzatov: StrikervsMichal Oleksiejczuk: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michal Oleksiejczuk at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Michal Oleksiejczuk (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Shamil Gamzatov
Red Corner
VS
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
1494
Elo
1508
35
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shamil Gamzatov
oldest →
W
vs Klidson Abreu · Nov 19
latest
Michal Oleksiejczuk
oldest →
L
vs Shara Magomedov · Aug 24
W
KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 25
W
KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 25
W
vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Feb 26
L
SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shamil GamzatovMetricMichal Oleksiejczuk
5.35
Strikes / min
5.85
3.46
Strikes absorbed / min
4.50
51%
Strike defense
59%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.02
50%
Takedown defense
52%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.89evenly matched on net striking+1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1516Strikes5.3 vs 5.1Takedowns0.0 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.4
Shamil GamzatovMichal Oleksiejczuk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Shamil Gamzatov(2 fights)Michal Oleksiejczuk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -14.1|Blue +14.1
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red -1.9|Blue +1.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +504.0|Blue -504.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shamil GamzatovTargetMichal Oleksiejczuk

By target zone

16
36% acc · 46%
Head
27
56% acc · 84%
13
81% acc · 37%
Body
5
71% acc · 16%
6
100% acc · 17%
Leg
0

By position

34
52% acc · 97%
Distance
29
60% acc · 91%
1
50% acc · 3%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
3
43% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Shamil Gamzatov rounds
0
even
1
Michal Oleksiejczuk rounds
Round 1Michal Oleksiejczuk edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
35 / 67
Sig Strikes
32 / 55
52%
Sig Str %
58%
35 / 67
Total Strikes
32 / 55
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Michal Oleksiejczuk32 / 5532 / 550 / 00
1Shamil Gamzatov35 / 6735 / 670 / 20

Shamil Gamzatov

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2

Michal Oleksiejczuk

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18