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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jailton Almeida won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1447

Elo1508

Shamil AbdurakhimovvsJailton AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Saturday, January 21, 2023Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Jailton Almeida won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:56

Model Prediction: Jailton Almeida wins(94.8%)

Actual result: Jailton Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jailton Almeida at -975 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shamil Abdurakhimov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Shamil Abdurakhimov has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jailton Almeida has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Shamil Abdurakhimov

Red Corner

Jailton Almeida

Blue Corner

+675

(13%)

Vegas Odds

-975

(91%)

1447

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shamil AbdurakhimovL3 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 18

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Apr 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Sep 19

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Sep 21

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Mar 22

latest

Jailton AlmeidaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 24

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Jun 24

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Jan 25

vs Alexander Volkov · Oct 25

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shamil AbdurakhimovMetricJailton Almeida

2.41

Strikes / min

2.23

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

1.30

55%

Strike defense

43%

1.01

TDs / 15 min

5.64

45%

Takedown defense

60%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.61Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap+0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shamil AbdurakhimovJailton Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shamil Abdurakhimov(10 fights)Jailton Almeida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -61.4|Blue +61.4

Recent Form

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Layoff

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shamil AbdurakhimovTargetJailton Almeida

By target zone

100% acc · 100%

Head

80% acc · 98%

Body

Leg

50% acc · 2%

By position

100% acc · 100%

Distance

20% acc · 2%

Clinch

Ground

85% acc · 98%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shamil Abdurakhimov rounds

even

Jailton Almeida rounds

Round 1Jailton Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:45Control

Round 2Jailton Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 1

Sig Strikes

45 / 57

100%

Sig Str %

79.5%

3 / 3

Total Strikes

89 / 110

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 5

—

TD %

58%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

7:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jailton Almeida	14 / 17	25 / 31	2 / 3
1	Shamil Abdurakhimov	1 / 1	3 / 3	0 / 0
2	Jailton Almeida	31 / 40	64 / 79	1 / 2
2	Shamil Abdurakhimov	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0

Shamil Abdurakhimov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights11

Jailton Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11