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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ricardo Romero won · SUB R2
Elo1351
Elo1351

Seth PetruzellivsRicardo RomeroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · Saturday, July 3, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ricardo Romero won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:05

Model Prediction: Seth Petruzelli wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Ricardo Romero wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Seth Petruzelli at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ricardo Romero threatens submissions; Seth Petruzelli has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Ricardo Romero has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Seth Petruzelli
Red Corner
VS
Ricardo Romero
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
1351
Elo
1351
46
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Seth Petruzelli
oldest →
L
KOvs Karlos Vemola · Nov 10
latest
Ricardo RomeroL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Kyle Kingsbury · Feb 11
L
KOvs James Te Huna · Sep 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Seth PetruzelliMetricRicardo Romero
2.17
Strikes / min
2.17
2.08
Strikes absorbed / min
4.77
55%
Strike defense
46%
0.46
TDs / 15 min
1.63
47%
Takedown defense
100%
2.30
Sub atts / 15 min
3.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.09Δ 2.69 — meaningful gap-2.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes16.5 vs —Takedowns0.5 vs —Sub Atts0.50 vs —Form0.0 vs 0.0
Seth PetruzelliRicardo Romero

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Seth Petruzelli(2 fights)Ricardo Romero(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Seth PetruzelliTargetRicardo Romero

By target zone

26
46% acc · 87%
Head
13
54% acc · 68%
3
100% acc · 10%
Body
6
100% acc · 32%
1
50% acc · 3%
Leg
0

By position

12
36% acc · 40%
Distance
6
43% acc · 32%
7
70% acc · 23%
Clinch
0
0% acc
11
58% acc · 37%
Ground
13
87% acc · 68%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Seth Petruzelli rounds
0
even
1
Ricardo Romero rounds
Round 1Seth Petruzelli edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:56
Knockdowns1
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:50Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Ricardo Romero edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:15
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:08Control

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
30 / 62
Sig Strikes
19 / 30
43.5%
Sig Str %
63.5%
42 / 76
Total Strikes
24 / 36
0 / 1
TDs
1 / 7
0%
TD %
10%
2
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
1
1:11
Ctrl Time
3:58

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ricardo Romero9 / 1610 / 171 / 51
1Seth Petruzelli27 / 5431 / 580 / 10
2Ricardo Romero10 / 1414 / 190 / 21
2Seth Petruzelli3 / 811 / 180 / 02

Seth Petruzelli

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2

Ricardo Romero

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3