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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Karlos Vemola won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1351
Elo1352
Karlos Vemola

Seth PetruzellivsKarlos VemolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami · Saturday, November 13, 2010Oberhausen, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany

Official fight result

Karlos Vemola won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:46

Model Prediction: Seth Petruzelli wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Karlos Vemola wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Seth Petruzelli at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Karlos Vemola is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Seth Petruzelli has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Karlos Vemola threatens submissions; Seth Petruzelli has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Seth Petruzelli has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Seth Petruzelli has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Seth Petruzelli
Red Corner
VS
Karlos Vemola
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
1351
Elo
1352
46
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Seth Petruzelli
oldest →
L
SUBvs Ricardo Romero · Jul 10
latest
Karlos VemolaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jon Madsen · Jul 10
L
vs Ronny Markes · Aug 11
W
SUBvs Mike Massenzio · May 12
L
SUBvs Francis Carmont · Jul 12
L
SUBvs Caio Magalhaes · Jun 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Seth PetruzelliMetricKarlos Vemola
2.17
Strikes / min
1.67
2.08
Strikes absorbed / min
2.13
55%
Strike defense
37%
0.46
TDs / 15 min
1.93
47%
Takedown defense
31%
2.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1487Strikes21.0 vs 16.0Takedowns0.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 1.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Seth PetruzelliKarlos Vemola

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Seth Petruzelli(2 fights)Karlos Vemola(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Seth PetruzelliTargetKarlos Vemola

By target zone

2
25% acc · 67%
Head
17
41% acc · 94%
1
50% acc · 33%
Body
1
100% acc · 6%
0
Leg
0

By position

2
29% acc · 67%
Distance
4
33% acc · 22%
1
50% acc · 33%
Clinch
0
0
0% acc
Ground
14
47% acc · 78%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Seth Petruzelli rounds
0
even
1
Karlos Vemola rounds
Round 1Karlos Vemola edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:20Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 10
Sig Strikes
18 / 42
30%
Sig Str %
42%
12 / 22
Total Strikes
43 / 76
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 2
—
TD %
100%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
3:20

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Karlos Vemola18 / 4243 / 762 / 20
1Seth Petruzelli3 / 1012 / 220 / 02

Seth Petruzelli

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2

Karlos Vemola

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights6