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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Seth Baczynski won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1354
Seth Baczynski
Elo1352

Seth BaczynskivsSimeon ThoresenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · Saturday, September 22, 2012Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Seth Baczynski won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:10

Model Prediction: Simeon Thoresen wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Seth Baczynski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Simeon Thoresen at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Seth Baczynski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Simeon Thoresen has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Simeon Thoresen has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Seth Baczynski
Red Corner
VS
Simeon Thoresen
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
1354
Elo
1352
44
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Seth BaczynskiL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Brian Melancon · Jul 13
W
vs Neil Magny · Nov 13
L
vs Thiago Alves · Apr 14
L
KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14
L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15
latest
Simeon Thoresen
oldest →
W
SUBvs Besam Yousef · Apr 12
L
vs David Mitchell · Jan 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Seth BaczynskiMetricSimeon Thoresen
3.08
Strikes / min
3.85
3.14
Strikes absorbed / min
3.85
51%
Strike defense
64%
0.89
TDs / 15 min
1.12
48%
Takedown defense
50%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.06evenly matched on net striking0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1537 vs 1519Strikes26.3 vs 37.0Takedowns0.5 vs 1.0Sub Atts1.25 vs 3.00Form0.9 vs 1.0
Seth BaczynskiSimeon Thoresen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Seth Baczynski(10 fights)Simeon Thoresen(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.6|Blue -2.6
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -55.0|Blue +55.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Seth BaczynskiTargetSimeon Thoresen

By target zone

12
17% acc · 80%
Head
9
20% acc · 53%
3
50% acc · 20%
Body
4
80% acc · 24%
0
0% acc
Leg
4
100% acc · 24%

By position

12
16% acc · 80%
Distance
15
29% acc · 88%
2
67% acc · 13%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 12%
1
100% acc · 7%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Seth Baczynski rounds
0
even
0
Simeon Thoresen rounds
Round 1Seth Baczynski edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
15 / 78
Sig Strikes
17 / 54
19%
Sig Str %
31%
15 / 78
Total Strikes
17 / 54
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Simeon Thoresen17 / 5417 / 540 / 00
1Seth Baczynski15 / 7815 / 780 / 00

Seth Baczynski

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11

Simeon Thoresen

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights3