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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Leon Edwards won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1354
Seth Baczynski
Elo1480
Leon Edwards

Seth BaczynskivsLeon EdwardsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · Saturday, April 11, 2015Krakow, Poland

Official fight result

Leon Edwards won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:08

Model Prediction: Leon Edwards wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leon Edwards at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Leon Edwards has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Leon Edwards (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Seth Baczynski
Red Corner
VS
Leon Edwards
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
1354
Elo
1480
44
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Seth BaczynskiL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Mike Pierce · Dec 12
L
KOvs Brian Melancon · Jul 13
W
vs Neil Magny · Nov 13
L
vs Thiago Alves · Apr 14
L
KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14
latest
Leon EdwardsL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23
W
vs Colby Covington · Dec 23
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24
L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25
L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Seth BaczynskiMetricLeon Edwards
3.08
Strikes / min
2.60
3.14
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
51%
Strike defense
52%
0.89
TDs / 15 min
1.25
48%
Takedown defense
63%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1494 vs 1482Strikes31.0 vs 33.0Takedowns0.6 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form-0.7 vs -1.0
Seth BaczynskiLeon Edwards

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Seth Baczynski(10 fights)Leon Edwards(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -125.3|Blue +125.3
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Seth BaczynskiTargetLeon Edwards

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
3
100% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
100% acc · 33%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Seth Baczynski rounds
0
even
1
Leon Edwards rounds
Round 1Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
0 / 4
Sig Strikes
3 / 3
0%
Sig Str %
100%
0 / 4
Total Strikes
3 / 3
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Leon Edwards3 / 33 / 30 / 00
1Seth Baczynski0 / 40 / 40 / 00

Seth Baczynski

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11

Leon Edwards

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights19