← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Seth Baczynski won · S-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1490

Seth BaczynskivsLance BenoistUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · Friday, June 8, 2012Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Seth Baczynski won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Lance Benoist wins(62.7%)

Actual result: Seth Baczynski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lance Benoist at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Seth Baczynski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Lance Benoist (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Seth Baczynski

Red Corner

Lance Benoist

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1354

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Seth BaczynskiL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brian Melancon · Jul 13

vs Neil Magny · Nov 13

vs Thiago Alves · Apr 14

KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14

KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15

latest

Lance Benoist

oldest →

vs Matthew Riddle · Sep 11

vs Sean Pierson · Sep 12

vs Bobby Voelker · Jun 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Seth BaczynskiMetricLance Benoist

3.08

Strikes / min

3.68

3.14

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

51%

Strike defense

56%

0.89

TDs / 15 min

1.50

48%

Takedown defense

61%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.06Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap+0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Seth BaczynskiLance Benoist

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Seth Baczynski(10 fights)Lance Benoist(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.8|Blue +135.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Seth BaczynskiTargetLance Benoist

By target zone

32% acc · 76%

Head

39% acc · 43%

60% acc · 24%

Body

85% acc · 49%

Leg

50% acc · 9%

By position

24% acc · 44%

Distance

46% acc · 54%

73% acc · 32%

Clinch

64% acc · 20%

43% acc · 24%

Ground

75% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Seth Baczynski rounds

even

Lance Benoist rounds

Round 1Lance Benoist edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:22

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 2Lance Benoist edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:06

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:53Control

Round 3Lance Benoist edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:20

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:34Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 70

Sig Strikes

35 / 64

34.3%

Sig Str %

55.7%

50 / 109

Total Strikes

114 / 150

1 / 5

TDs

3 / 7

16.5%

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:48

Ctrl Time

6:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lance Benoist	12 / 26	24 / 38	1 / 2
1	Seth Baczynski	10 / 28	20 / 45	0 / 0
2	Lance Benoist	12 / 20	41 / 51	1 / 2
2	Seth Baczynski	5 / 18	14 / 30	0 / 2
3	Lance Benoist	11 / 18	49 / 61	1 / 3
3	Seth Baczynski	10 / 24	16 / 34	1 / 3

Seth Baczynski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Lance Benoist

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4