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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Brian Melancon won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1354
Seth Baczynski
Elo1490

Seth BaczynskivsBrian MelanconUFC Prediction Result

UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · Saturday, July 6, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brian Melancon won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:59

Model Prediction: Seth Baczynski wins(72.5%)

Actual result: Brian Melancon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Seth Baczynski at -280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Seth Baczynski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Brian Melancon is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Seth Baczynski has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Brian Melancon has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Brian Melancon has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Seth Baczynski
Red Corner
VS
Brian Melancon
Blue Corner
-280
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
1354
Elo
1490
44
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
5'8"
190.5 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Seth BaczynskiL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Mike Pierce · Dec 12
W
vs Neil Magny · Nov 13
L
vs Thiago Alves · Apr 14
L
KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14
L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15
latest
Brian Melancon
oldest →
L
SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Aug 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Seth BaczynskiMetricBrian Melancon
3.08
Strikes / min
4.18
3.14
Strikes absorbed / min
3.64
51%
Strike defense
64%
0.89
TDs / 15 min
2.02
48%
Takedown defense
66%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1537 vs 1500Strikes25.7 vs —Takedowns0.3 vs —Sub Atts0.83 vs —Form0.3 vs 0.0
Seth BaczynskiBrian Melancon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Seth Baczynski(10 fights)Brian Melancon(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -135.8|Blue +135.8
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -48.5|Blue +48.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Seth BaczynskiTargetBrian Melancon

By target zone

8
17% acc · 62%
Head
17
50% acc · 71%
1
33% acc · 8%
Body
3
75% acc · 13%
4
100% acc · 31%
Leg
4
100% acc · 17%

By position

11
21% acc · 85%
Distance
14
50% acc · 58%
2
100% acc · 15%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
10
71% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Seth Baczynski rounds
0
even
1
Brian Melancon rounds
Round 1Brian Melancon edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:16
Knockdowns0
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:40Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
13 / 54
Sig Strikes
24 / 42
24%
Sig Str %
57%
14 / 55
Total Strikes
30 / 48
0 / 1
TDs
1 / 1
0%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:16
Ctrl Time
1:40

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Brian Melancon24 / 4230 / 481 / 10
1Seth Baczynski13 / 5414 / 550 / 10

Seth Baczynski

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11

Brian Melancon

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach—
Fights2