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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Alan Jouban won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1354
Seth Baczynski
Elo1493

Seth BaczynskivsAlan JoubanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 16, 2014Bangor, Maine, USA

Official fight result

Alan Jouban won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:23

Model Prediction: Seth Baczynski wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Alan Jouban wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Seth Baczynski at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alan Jouban is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Seth Baczynski has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Alan Jouban (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Seth Baczynski
Red Corner
VS
Alan Jouban
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
1354
Elo
1493
44
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Seth BaczynskiL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Mike Pierce · Dec 12
L
KOvs Brian Melancon · Jul 13
W
vs Neil Magny · Nov 13
L
vs Thiago Alves · Apr 14
L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15
latest
Alan Jouban
oldest →
L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 17
L
KOvs Niko Price · Aug 17
W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Feb 18
L
vs Dwight Grant · Apr 19
W
vs Jared Gooden · Nov 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Seth BaczynskiMetricAlan Jouban
3.08
Strikes / min
5.67
3.14
Strikes absorbed / min
3.77
51%
Strike defense
60%
0.89
TDs / 15 min
0.51
48%
Takedown defense
58%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.06Δ 1.96 — meaningful gap+1.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1513 vs 1500Strikes31.7 vs —Takedowns0.6 vs —Sub Atts0.56 vs —Form-0.3 vs 0.0
Seth BaczynskiAlan Jouban

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Seth Baczynski(10 fights)Alan Jouban(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.5|Blue +138.5
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -48.5|Blue +48.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Seth BaczynskiTargetAlan Jouban

By target zone

23
38% acc · 92%
Head
15
47% acc · 60%
2
40% acc · 8%
Body
5
83% acc · 20%
0
Leg
5
100% acc · 20%

By position

15
33% acc · 60%
Distance
14
50% acc · 56%
8
50% acc · 32%
Clinch
9
69% acc · 36%
2
50% acc · 8%
Ground
2
100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Seth Baczynski rounds
0
even
1
Alan Jouban rounds
Round 1Alan Jouban edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control0:43
Knockdowns0
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
25 / 65
Sig Strikes
25 / 43
38%
Sig Str %
58%
27 / 68
Total Strikes
26 / 44
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:43
Ctrl Time
0:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alan Jouban25 / 4326 / 440 / 00
1Seth Baczynski25 / 6527 / 681 / 20

Seth Baczynski

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights11

Alan Jouban

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13