← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Sergio Pettis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1469

Sergio PettisvsTyson NamUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Saturday, September 21, 2019Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Sergio Pettis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSergio Pettis: Elusive strikervsTyson Nam: Striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Sergio Pettis wins(74.9%)

Actual result: Sergio Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergio Pettis at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tyson Nam has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sergio Pettis

Red Corner

Tyson Nam

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1492

Elo

1469

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergio PettisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Aug 17

vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 17

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 18

vs Jussier Formiga · Oct 18

vs Rob Font · Dec 18

latest

Tyson NamL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jerome Rivera · Sep 20

vs Matt Schnell · Jan 21

KOvs Ode Osbourne · Aug 22

SUBvs Bruno Silva · Mar 23

vs Azat Maksum · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergio PettisMetricTyson Nam

3.88

Strikes / min

3.87

2.91

Strikes absorbed / min

4.97

65%

Strike defense

65%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

0.00

67%

Takedown defense

87%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.97Δ 2.07 — meaningful gap-1.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sergio PettisTyson Nam

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergio Pettis(10 fights)Tyson Nam(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.1|Blue -23.1

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -46.5|Blue +46.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergio PettisTargetTyson Nam

By target zone

34% acc · 79%

Head

19% acc · 70%

38% acc · 5%

Body

47% acc · 18%

94% acc · 16%

Leg

83% acc · 13%

By position

37% acc · 94%

Distance

23% acc · 95%

71% acc · 5%

Clinch

33% acc · 5%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergio Pettis rounds

even

Tyson Nam rounds

Round 1Sergio Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Sergio Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Sergio Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:02

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

96 / 253

Sig Strikes

40 / 170

36%

Sig Str %

22%

96 / 253

Total Strikes

43 / 173

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tyson Nam	7 / 42	7 / 42	0 / 0
1	Sergio Pettis	17 / 57	17 / 57	0 / 0
2	Tyson Nam	16 / 67	16 / 67	0 / 0
2	Sergio Pettis	32 / 91	32 / 91	0 / 0
3	Tyson Nam	17 / 61	20 / 64	0 / 0
3	Sergio Pettis	47 / 105	47 / 105	0 / 0

Sergio Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Tyson Nam

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8