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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sergio Pettis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1490

Sergio PettisvsMatt HobarUFC Prediction Result

UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · Saturday, December 6, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sergio Pettis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSergio Pettis: Elusive strikervsMatt Hobar: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Sergio Pettis wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Sergio Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergio Pettis at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergio Pettis has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sergio Pettis has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matt Hobar (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sergio Pettis

Red Corner

Matt Hobar

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1492

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergio Pettis

oldest →

vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 17

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 18

vs Jussier Formiga · Oct 18

vs Rob Font · Dec 18

vs Tyson Nam · Sep 19

latest

Matt Hobar

oldest →

KOvs Pedro Munhoz · May 14

vs Aaron Phillips · Aug 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergio PettisMetricMatt Hobar

3.88

Strikes / min

3.23

2.91

Strikes absorbed / min

4.27

65%

Strike defense

52%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

3.66

67%

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.97Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap-1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sergio PettisMatt Hobar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergio Pettis(10 fights)Matt Hobar(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.8|Blue -2.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergio PettisTargetMatt Hobar

By target zone

37% acc · 88%

Head

22% acc · 61%

55% acc · 8%

Body

58% acc · 31%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

50% acc · 8%

By position

33% acc · 69%

Distance

25% acc · 72%

69% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

72% acc · 17%

Ground

38% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergio Pettis rounds

even

Matt Hobar rounds

Round 1Matt Hobar edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:42Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Sergio Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control1:24

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:19Control

Round 3Sergio Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:09

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 200

Sig Strikes

36 / 124

36.7%

Sig Str %

29%

96 / 220

Total Strikes

54 / 142

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 9

TD %

41.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:35

Ctrl Time

4:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Hobar	15 / 40	19 / 44	1 / 1	0
1	Sergio Pettis	12 / 49	15 / 52	0 / 1	1
2	Matt Hobar	7 / 26	21 / 40	1 / 4	0
2	Sergio Pettis	42 / 79	55 / 94	0 / 0	1
3	Matt Hobar	14 / 58	14 / 58	0 / 4	0
3	Sergio Pettis	24 / 72	26 / 74	0 / 0	0

Sergio Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Matt Hobar

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3