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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jussier Formiga won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1385

Sergio PettisvsJussier FormigaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Saturday, October 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jussier Formiga won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Sergio Pettis wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Jussier Formiga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergio Pettis at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jussier Formiga enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jussier Formiga has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sergio Pettis

Red Corner

Jussier Formiga

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1492

Elo

1385

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergio Pettis

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Aug 17

vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 17

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 18

vs Rob Font · Dec 18

vs Tyson Nam · Sep 19

latest

Jussier FormigaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ben Nguyen · Feb 18

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Mar 19

KOvs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 19

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 20

KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergio PettisMetricJussier Formiga

3.88

Strikes / min

1.42

2.91

Strikes absorbed / min

2.34

65%

Strike defense

64%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

1.82

67%

Takedown defense

87%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.97Δ 1.89 — meaningful gap-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sergio PettisJussier Formiga

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergio Pettis(10 fights)Jussier Formiga(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +107.0|Blue -107.0

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.8|Blue -2.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergio PettisTargetJussier Formiga

By target zone

27% acc · 77%

Head

47% acc · 94%

60% acc · 10%

Body

67% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

47% acc · 89%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergio Pettis rounds

even

Jussier Formiga rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:26Control

Round 2Jussier Formiga edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 3Jussier Formiga edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 97

Sig Strikes

18 / 37

32.7%

Sig Str %

57.3%

91 / 161

Total Strikes

90 / 123

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 5

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

7:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jussier Formiga	10 / 25	20 / 36	1 / 2
1	Sergio Pettis	17 / 51	43 / 77	0 / 0
2	Jussier Formiga	6 / 9	13 / 16	1 / 2
2	Sergio Pettis	9 / 36	30 / 60	0 / 0
3	Jussier Formiga	2 / 3	57 / 71	0 / 1
3	Sergio Pettis	4 / 10	18 / 24	0 / 0

Sergio Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Jussier Formiga

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16