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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Sergio Pettis won · U-DEC R5

Elo1492

Elo1487

Sergio PettisvsBrandon MorenoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · Saturday, August 5, 2017Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Sergio Pettis won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupSergio Pettis: Elusive strikervsBrandon Moreno: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Brandon Moreno wins(53.6%)

Actual result: Sergio Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brandon Moreno at -175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Sergio Pettis

Red Corner

Brandon Moreno

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1492

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergio Pettis

oldest →

vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 17

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 18

vs Jussier Formiga · Oct 18

vs Rob Font · Dec 18

vs Tyson Nam · Sep 19

latest

Brandon MorenoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Feb 24

vs Amir Albazi · Nov 24

vs Steve Erceg · Mar 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 25

vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergio PettisMetricBrandon Moreno

3.88

Strikes / min

3.84

2.91

Strikes absorbed / min

3.64

65%

Strike defense

59%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

1.36

67%

Takedown defense

65%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.97evenly matched on net striking+0.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sergio PettisBrandon Moreno

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergio Pettis(10 fights)Brandon Moreno(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.3|Blue -5.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +97.0|Blue -97.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergio PettisTargetBrandon Moreno

By target zone

27% acc · 72%

Head

20% acc · 58%

65% acc · 14%

Body

63% acc · 27%

67% acc · 13%

Leg

58% acc · 16%

By position

31% acc · 95%

Distance

26% acc · 84%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

25% acc · 2%

67% acc · 3%

Ground

60% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergio Pettis rounds

even

Brandon Moreno rounds

Round 1Brandon Moreno edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:33Control

Round 2Sergio Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:04

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3Sergio Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:05

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Sergio Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 5Brandon Moreno edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:03

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:51Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 235

Sig Strikes

45 / 161

26.2%

Sig Str %

34.6%

84 / 244

Total Strikes

70 / 193

0 / 1

TDs

4 / 8

TD %

70%

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

7:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brandon Moreno	7 / 9	28 / 36	1 / 1
1	Sergio Pettis	0 / 3	3 / 7	0 / 0
2	Brandon Moreno	5 / 28	5 / 28	1 / 2
2	Sergio Pettis	13 / 51	13 / 51	0 / 0
3	Brandon Moreno	14 / 45	14 / 45	0 / 3
3	Sergio Pettis	26 / 77	26 / 77	0 / 0
4	Sergio Pettis	24 / 72	24 / 72	0 / 0
4	Brandon Moreno	12 / 53	12 / 53	1 / 1
5	Brandon Moreno	7 / 26	11 / 31	1 / 1
5	Sergio Pettis	13 / 32	18 / 37	0 / 1

Sergio Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Brandon Moreno

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18