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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sergio Moraes won · S-DEC R3

Elo1378

Elo1491

Sergio MoraesvsZak OttowUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Saturday, November 19, 2016Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Sergio Moraes won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Zak Ottow wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Sergio Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zak Ottow at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergio Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sergio Moraes has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sergio Moraes

Red Corner

Zak Ottow

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1378

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergio MoraesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Means · Feb 18

SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19

KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19

KOvs James Krause · Nov 19

latest

Zak Ottow

oldest →

KOvs Li Jingliang · Nov 17

KOvs Mike Pyle · Mar 18

KOvs Sage Northcutt · Jul 18

vs Dwight Grant · Dec 18

KOvs Alex Morono · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergio MoraesMetricZak Ottow

2.42

Strikes / min

2.63

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

2.73

59%

Strike defense

58%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

0.97

75%

Takedown defense

57%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.31Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sergio MoraesZak Ottow

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergio Moraes(10 fights)Zak Ottow(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -113.5|Blue +113.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +296.0|Blue -296.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergio MoraesTargetZak Ottow

By target zone

36% acc · 83%

Head

26% acc · 70%

38% acc · 9%

Body

50% acc · 16%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

36% acc · 83%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

Clinch

55% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergio Moraes rounds

even

Zak Ottow rounds

Round 1Sergio Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:20

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Zak Ottow edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Zak Ottow edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:45

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 91

Sig Strikes

44 / 141

35%

Sig Str %

31%

53 / 109

Total Strikes

50 / 147

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zak Ottow	4 / 12	10 / 18	0 / 0
1	Sergio Moraes	4 / 15	14 / 25	1 / 1
2	Zak Ottow	16 / 62	16 / 62	0 / 0
2	Sergio Moraes	11 / 32	11 / 32	0 / 1
3	Zak Ottow	24 / 67	24 / 67	0 / 1
3	Sergio Moraes	20 / 44	28 / 52	0 / 1

Sergio Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights13

Zak Ottow

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8