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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sergio Moraes won · S-DEC R3

Elo1378

Elo1492

Sergio MoraesvsTim MeansUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · Saturday, February 3, 2018Belem, Para, Brazil

Official fight result

Sergio Moraes won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Sergio Moraes wins(59.5%)

Actual result: Sergio Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergio Moraes at +173 American odds

+$173 profit

$273 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergio Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Sergio Moraes

Red Corner

Tim Means

Blue Corner

+173

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1378

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergio MoraesL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Sep 17

SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19

KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19

KOvs James Krause · Nov 19

latest

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergio MoraesMetricTim Means

2.42

Strikes / min

5.04

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

59%

Strike defense

60%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

1.14

75%

Takedown defense

64%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.31Δ 2.70 — meaningful gap+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sergio MoraesTim Means

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergio Moraes(10 fights)Tim Means(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -113.7|Blue +113.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergio MoraesTargetTim Means

By target zone

42% acc · 80%

Head

40% acc · 71%

68% acc · 17%

Body

79% acc · 17%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

94% acc · 12%

By position

45% acc · 100%

Distance

124

46% acc · 96%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

80% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergio Moraes rounds

even

Tim Means rounds

Round 1Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 2Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

58Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 192

Sig Strikes

129 / 274

44.3%

Sig Str %

46%

89 / 195

Total Strikes

136 / 282

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tim Means	28 / 66	35 / 74	0 / 0
1	Sergio Moraes	20 / 51	21 / 53	0 / 1
2	Tim Means	43 / 87	43 / 87	0 / 0
2	Sergio Moraes	29 / 62	30 / 63	0 / 0
3	Tim Means	58 / 121	58 / 121	0 / 0
3	Sergio Moraes	38 / 79	38 / 79	0 / 0

Sergio Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights13

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29