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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sergio Moraes won · SUB R1

Elo1378

Elo1505

Sergio MoraesvsNeil MagnyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · Saturday, August 3, 2013Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Sergio Moraes won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:13

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Sergio Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at +151 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergio Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sergio Moraes has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Neil Magny has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sergio Moraes

Red Corner

Neil Magny

Blue Corner

-161

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+151

(40%)

1378

Elo

1505

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergio MoraesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Means · Feb 18

SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19

KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19

KOvs James Krause · Nov 19

latest

Neil Magny

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25

SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergio MoraesMetricNeil Magny

2.42

Strikes / min

3.40

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

59%

Strike defense

51%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

2.17

75%

Takedown defense

55%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.31Δ 2.27 — meaningful gap+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sergio MoraesNeil Magny

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergio Moraes(10 fights)Neil Magny(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -127.4|Blue +127.4

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergio MoraesTargetNeil Magny

By target zone

63% acc · 92%

Head

22% acc · 86%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

44% acc · 31%

Distance

24% acc · 100%

Clinch

82% acc · 69%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergio Moraes rounds

even

Neil Magny rounds

Round 1Sergio Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:06

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 20

Sig Strikes

7 / 29

65%

Sig Str %

24%

13 / 20

Total Strikes

9 / 31

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:06

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Neil Magny	7 / 29	9 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Sergio Moraes	13 / 20	13 / 20	1 / 1	1

Sergio Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights13

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights37