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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Sergio Moraes won · U-DEC R3
Elo1378
Sergio Moraes
Elo1490
Mickael Lebout

Sergio MoraesvsMickael LeboutUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · Saturday, April 11, 2015Krakow, Poland

Official fight result

Sergio Moraes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Sergio Moraes wins(73.9%)

Actual result: Sergio Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergio Moraes at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sergio Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Sergio Moraes has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sergio Moraes
Red Corner
VS
Mickael Lebout
Blue Corner
-550
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+425
(19%)
1378
Elo
1490
44
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergio MoraesL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Tim Means · Feb 18
W
SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18
L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19
L
KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19
L
KOvs James Krause · Nov 19
latest
Mickael Lebout
oldest →
W
vs Teemu Packalen · Jul 15
L
vs Stevie Ray · Oct 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergio MoraesMetricMickael Lebout
2.42
Strikes / min
2.60
3.73
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
59%
Strike defense
54%
1.20
TDs / 15 min
0.00
75%
Takedown defense
60%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.31evenly matched on net striking-0.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1520 vs 1500Strikes22.3 vs —Takedowns1.7 vs —Sub Atts0.67 vs —Form0.6 vs 0.0
Sergio MoraesMickael Lebout

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Sergio Moraes(10 fights)Mickael Lebout(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -112.5|Blue +112.5
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red -48.5|Blue +48.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergio MoraesTargetMickael Lebout

By target zone

40
58% acc · 78%
Head
33
35% acc · 70%
8
100% acc · 16%
Body
5
83% acc · 11%
3
60% acc · 6%
Leg
9
90% acc · 19%

By position

50
63% acc · 98%
Distance
46
42% acc · 98%
0
Clinch
0
1
50% acc · 2%
Ground
1
100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Sergio Moraes rounds
0
even
1
Mickael Lebout rounds
Round 1Sergio Moraes edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control0:29
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Mickael Lebout edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:01
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 3Sergio Moraes edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control3:31
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
51 / 82
Sig Strikes
47 / 111
63.7%
Sig Str %
44%
51 / 82
Total Strikes
50 / 114
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
66.7%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
4:01
Ctrl Time
0:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mickael Lebout12 / 3714 / 390 / 00
1Sergio Moraes16 / 3116 / 311 / 10
2Mickael Lebout23 / 5324 / 540 / 00
2Sergio Moraes20 / 3220 / 320 / 10
3Mickael Lebout12 / 2112 / 210 / 00
3Sergio Moraes15 / 1915 / 191 / 10

Sergio Moraes

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights13

Mickael Lebout

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3