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Welterweight
3 Rounds
James Krause won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1378
Sergio Moraes
Elo1493
James Krause

Sergio MoraesvsJames KrauseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · Saturday, November 16, 2019Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

James Krause won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:19

Model Prediction: James Krause wins(69.1%)

Actual result: James Krause wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James Krause at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sergio Moraes has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sergio Moraes
Red Corner
VS
James Krause
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-200
(67%)
1378
Elo
1493
44
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergio MoraesL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Sep 17
W
vs Tim Means · Feb 18
W
SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18
L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19
L
KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19
latest
James Krause
oldest →
W
vs Tom Gallicchio · Jul 17
W
vs Alex White · Jan 18
W
KOvs Warlley Alves · Aug 18
L
vs Trevin Giles · Feb 20
W
vs Claudio Silva · Oct 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergio MoraesMetricJames Krause
2.42
Strikes / min
4.79
3.73
Strikes absorbed / min
4.11
59%
Strike defense
61%
1.20
TDs / 15 min
0.96
75%
Takedown defense
59%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.31Δ 1.99 — meaningful gap+0.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1560 vs 1575Takedowns1.2 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.60Form-0.4 vs 1.0
Sergio MoraesJames Krause

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Sergio Moraes(10 fights)James Krause(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -115.0|Blue +115.0
Recent Form
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Striker Score
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -259.0|Blue +259.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergio MoraesTargetJames Krause

By target zone

36
40% acc · 88%
Head
79
53% acc · 77%
3
50% acc · 7%
Body
7
70% acc · 7%
2
100% acc · 5%
Leg
16
100% acc · 16%

By position

41
41% acc · 100%
Distance
97
58% acc · 95%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
5
63% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Sergio Moraes rounds
1
even
2
James Krause rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control2:16
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:18Control
Round 2James Krause edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
47Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:36Control
2Knockdowns
Round 3James Krause edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
45Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
3
41 / 99
Sig Strikes
102 / 174
50.7%
Sig Str %
61.7%
42 / 100
Total Strikes
125 / 200
1 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
25%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
2:16
Ctrl Time
2:11

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1James Krause10 / 1422 / 280 / 00
1Sergio Moraes6 / 87 / 91 / 20
2James Krause47 / 7958 / 910 / 00
2Sergio Moraes15 / 3515 / 350 / 00
3James Krause45 / 8145 / 810 / 00
3Sergio Moraes20 / 5620 / 560 / 20

Sergio Moraes

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights13

James Krause

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13