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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sergio Moraes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1378

Elo1387

Sergio MoraesvsDavi RamosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · Saturday, March 11, 2017Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Sergio Moraes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Sergio Moraes wins(81.8%)

Actual result: Sergio Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergio Moraes at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergio Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Sergio Moraes

Red Corner

Davi Ramos

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1378

Elo

1387

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'6"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergio MoraesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Means · Feb 18

SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19

KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19

KOvs James Krause · Nov 19

latest

Davi RamosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Nick Hein · May 18

SUBvs John Gunther · Nov 18

vs Austin Hubbard · May 19

vs Islam Makhachev · Sep 19

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergio MoraesMetricDavi Ramos

2.42

Strikes / min

2.64

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

59%

Strike defense

56%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

1.95

75%

Takedown defense

83%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.31evenly matched on net striking-0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sergio MoraesDavi Ramos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergio Moraes(10 fights)Davi Ramos(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.7|Blue +8.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.4|Blue +48.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergio MoraesTargetDavi Ramos

By target zone

34% acc · 62%

Head

22% acc · 60%

65% acc · 33%

Body

41% acc · 20%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

88% acc · 20%

By position

42% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergio Moraes rounds

even

Davi Ramos rounds

Round 1Davi Ramos edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sergio Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sergio Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 93

Sig Strikes

35 / 122

41%

Sig Str %

27.3%

39 / 93

Total Strikes

35 / 122

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Davi Ramos	10 / 36	10 / 36	0 / 0
1	Sergio Moraes	7 / 27	7 / 27	0 / 0
2	Davi Ramos	17 / 52	17 / 52	0 / 1
2	Sergio Moraes	19 / 31	19 / 31	0 / 0
3	Davi Ramos	8 / 34	8 / 34	0 / 0
3	Sergio Moraes	13 / 35	13 / 35	0 / 0

Sergio Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights13

Davi Ramos

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7