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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Sergei Pavlovich won · U-DEC R3

Elo1538

Elo1562

Sergei PavlovichvsWaldo Cortes AcostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Saturday, August 23, 2025Shanghai, Hebei, China

Official fight result

Sergei Pavlovich won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSergei Pavlovich: Pressure fightervsWaldo Cortes Acosta: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich wins(59.5%)

Actual result: Sergei Pavlovich wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergei Pavlovich at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Waldo Cortes Acosta is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
Sergei Pavlovich has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sergei Pavlovich

Red Corner

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1538

Elo

1562

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

213.36 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergei PavlovichW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Apr 23

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · May 26

latest

Waldo Cortes Acosta

oldest →

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Nov 25

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Nov 25

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jan 26

DECvs Alexander Volkov · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergei PavlovichMetricWaldo Cortes Acosta

4.43

Strikes / min

5.34

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

55%

Strike defense

54%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

0.40

75%

Takedown defense

73%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81evenly matched on net striking+1.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sergei PavlovichWaldo Cortes Acosta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)Waldo Cortes Acosta(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.3|Blue +23.3

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergei PavlovichTargetWaldo Cortes Acosta

By target zone

34% acc · 57%

Head

31% acc · 60%

86% acc · 20%

Body

40% acc · 9%

93% acc · 23%

Leg

74% acc · 31%

By position

46% acc · 98%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergei Pavlovich rounds

even

Waldo Cortes Acosta rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:06

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sergei Pavlovich edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sergei Pavlovich edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:02

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 133

Sig Strikes

45 / 117

43.7%

Sig Str %

38.7%

63 / 136

Total Strikes

45 / 117

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Waldo Cortes Acosta	11 / 34	11 / 34	0 / 0
1	Sergei Pavlovich	9 / 28	11 / 31	0 / 1
2	Waldo Cortes Acosta	20 / 37	20 / 37	0 / 0
2	Sergei Pavlovich	22 / 43	22 / 43	0 / 0
3	Waldo Cortes Acosta	14 / 46	14 / 46	0 / 0
3	Sergei Pavlovich	30 / 62	30 / 62	0 / 2

Sergei Pavlovich

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights12

Waldo Cortes Acosta

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7