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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Tom Aspinall won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1538
Sergei Pavlovich
Elo1516

Sergei PavlovichvsTom AspinallUFC Prediction Result

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 11, 2023New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Tom Aspinall won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:09

Style matchupSergei Pavlovich: Pressure fightervsTom Aspinall: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tom Aspinall wins(79.1%)

Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Aspinall at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Sergei Pavlovich is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Tom Aspinall has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Tom Aspinall is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Tom Aspinall has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
  • Sergei Pavlovich has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sergei Pavlovich
Red Corner
VS
Tom Aspinall
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
1538
Elo
1516
34
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'5"
213.36 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergei PavlovichW3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Apr 23
L
vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24
W
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25
W
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25
W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · May 26
latest
Tom Aspinall
oldest →
W
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 22
L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22
W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23
W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24
L
vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergei PavlovichMetricTom Aspinall
4.43
Strikes / min
7.63
3.62
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
55%
Strike defense
56%
0.48
TDs / 15 min
2.62
75%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.81Δ 3.20 — meaningful gap+4.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1576 vs 1568Strikes5.9 vs 8.1Takedowns0.0 vs 3.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.60Form1.1 vs 0.7
Sergei PavlovichTom Aspinall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901505152015351550← oldermost recent →
Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)Tom Aspinall(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +22.3|Blue -22.3
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Layoff
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergei PavlovichTargetTom Aspinall

By target zone

1
14% acc · 100%
Head
7
70% acc · 70%
0
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
3
100% acc · 30%

By position

1
14% acc · 100%
Distance
7
64% acc · 70%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
3
100% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Sergei Pavlovich rounds
0
even
1
Tom Aspinall rounds
Round 1Tom Aspinall edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
1 / 7
Sig Strikes
10 / 14
14%
Sig Str %
71%
1 / 7
Total Strikes
10 / 14
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tom Aspinall10 / 1410 / 140 / 00
1Sergei Pavlovich1 / 71 / 70 / 00

Sergei Pavlovich

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights12

Tom Aspinall

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10