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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Sergei Pavlovich won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1538

Elo1490

Sergei PavlovichvsTallison TeixeiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 30, 2026Macau, China

Official fight result

Sergei Pavlovich won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:39

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Tallison Teixeira

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Tallison Teixeira at +416 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupSergei Pavlovich: Pressure fightervsTallison Teixeira: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich wins(57.8%)

Actual result: Sergei Pavlovich wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergei Pavlovich is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Tallison Teixeira has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Tallison Teixeira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Sergei Pavlovich has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sergei Pavlovich has 75pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sergei Pavlovich

Red Corner

Tallison Teixeira

Blue Corner

-580

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+416

(19%)

1538

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'7"

213.36 cm

Reach

210.82 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergei PavlovichW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Apr 23

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25

latest

Tallison Teixeira

oldest →

KOvs Justin Tafa · Feb 25

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 25

vs Tai Tuivasa · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergei PavlovichMetricTallison Teixeira

4.43

Strikes / min

5.02

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

55%

Strike defense

42%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

2.48

75%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81evenly matched on net striking+1.16

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)Tallison Teixeira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.0|Blue -48.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +161.0|Blue -161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergei PavlovichTargetTallison Teixeira

By target zone

78% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

Leg

0% acc

By position

86% acc · 86%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergei Pavlovich rounds

even

Tallison Teixeira rounds

Round 1Sergei Pavlovich edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 9

Sig Strikes

0 / 4

77%

Sig Str %

10 / 13

Total Strikes

0 / 4

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tallison Teixeira	0 / 4	0 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Sergei Pavlovich	7 / 9	10 / 13	0 / 0	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Sergei Pavlovich

Odds

-580

Market-implied probability

Tallison Teixeira 19%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Sergei Pavlovich$117

Tallison Teixeira (model pick · research)$516

19% market-implied · model 44% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked May 29, 2026, 3:48 PM UTC · never rewritten

Sergei Pavlovich

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights12

Tallison Teixeira

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach83.0"

Fights4