← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Sergei Pavlovich won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1538

Elo1372

Sergei PavlovichvsMarcelo GolmUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Saturday, April 20, 2019Saint Petersburg, Saint Petersburg, Russia

Official fight result

Sergei Pavlovich won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:06

Style matchupSergei Pavlovich: Pressure fightervsMarcelo Golm: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Marcelo Golm wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Sergei Pavlovich wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcelo Golm at +250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Sergei Pavlovich has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
Sergei Pavlovich has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sergei Pavlovich

Red Corner

Marcelo Golm

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1538

Elo

1372

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

213.36 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergei PavlovichW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · May 26

latest

Marcelo GolmL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Christian Colombo · Oct 17

DECvs Tim Johnson · Feb 18

vs Arjan Bhullar · Oct 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergei PavlovichMetricMarcelo Golm

4.43

Strikes / min

4.27

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

4.30

55%

Strike defense

45%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

0.45

75%

Takedown defense

87%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81evenly matched on net striking-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sergei PavlovichMarcelo Golm

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)Marcelo Golm(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +166.2|Blue -166.2

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergei PavlovichTargetMarcelo Golm

By target zone

65% acc · 100%

Head

31% acc · 80%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

64% acc · 82%

Distance

29% acc · 80%

75% acc · 18%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergei Pavlovich rounds

even

Marcelo Golm rounds

Round 1Sergei Pavlovich edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 26

Sig Strikes

5 / 15

65%

Sig Str %

33%

17 / 26

Total Strikes

5 / 15

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcelo Golm	5 / 15	5 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Sergei Pavlovich	17 / 26	17 / 26	0 / 0	0

Sergei Pavlovich

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights12

Marcelo Golm

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4