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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Sergei Pavlovich won · U-DEC R3

Elo1538

Elo1502

Sergei PavlovichvsJairzinho RozenstruikUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Saturday, February 1, 2025Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Sergei Pavlovich won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSergei Pavlovich: Pressure fightervsJairzinho Rozenstruik: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich wins(82.7%)

Actual result: Sergei Pavlovich wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergei Pavlovich at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a KO finisher (89% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
Sergei Pavlovich has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sergei Pavlovich

Red Corner

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1538

Elo

1502

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

213.36 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergei PavlovichW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Apr 23

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · May 26

latest

Jairzinho RozenstruikW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Jun 22

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Dec 22

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · May 23

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Mar 24

vs Tai Tuivasa · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergei PavlovichMetricJairzinho Rozenstruik

4.43

Strikes / min

3.48

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

55%

Strike defense

52%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

0.00

75%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sergei PavlovichJairzinho Rozenstruik

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)Jairzinho Rozenstruik(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.9|Blue -35.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergei PavlovichTargetJairzinho Rozenstruik

By target zone

38% acc · 84%

Head

16% acc · 41%

67% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 18%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

78% acc · 41%

By position

42% acc · 100%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergei Pavlovich rounds

even

Jairzinho Rozenstruik rounds

Round 1Sergei Pavlovich edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:09

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sergei Pavlovich edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:19

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sergei Pavlovich edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:49

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 60

Sig Strikes

17 / 55

41%

Sig Str %

32.7%

145 / 208

Total Strikes

23 / 63

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:17

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	7 / 15	9 / 18	0 / 0
1	Sergei Pavlovich	11 / 23	32 / 51	0 / 0
2	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	6 / 17	8 / 19	0 / 0
2	Sergei Pavlovich	3 / 19	39 / 64	1 / 1
3	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	4 / 23	6 / 26	0 / 0
3	Sergei Pavlovich	11 / 18	74 / 93	1 / 1

Sergei Pavlovich

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights12

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15