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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Sergei Pavlovich won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1538

Elo1495

Sergei PavlovichvsCurtis BlaydesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Saturday, April 22, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sergei Pavlovich won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:08

Style matchupSergei Pavlovich: Pressure fightervsCurtis Blaydes: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich wins(59.7%)

Actual result: Sergei Pavlovich wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergei Pavlovich at +112 American odds

+$112 profit

$212 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Sergei Pavlovich is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Sergei Pavlovich has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
Sergei Pavlovich has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sergei Pavlovich

Red Corner

Curtis Blaydes

Blue Corner

+112

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-132

(57%)

1538

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

213.36 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergei PavlovichW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · May 26

latest

Curtis Blaydes

oldest →

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 22

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25

DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergei PavlovichMetricCurtis Blaydes

4.43

Strikes / min

4.18

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

55%

Strike defense

53%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

5.12

75%

Takedown defense

35%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81evenly matched on net striking+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sergei PavlovichCurtis Blaydes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.9|Blue -42.9

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergei PavlovichTargetCurtis Blaydes

By target zone

38% acc · 83%

Head

22% acc · 79%

86% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 7%

Leg

50% acc · 14%

By position

40% acc · 89%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergei Pavlovich rounds

even

Curtis Blaydes rounds

Round 1Sergei Pavlovich edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 85

Sig Strikes

14 / 56

42%

Sig Str %

25%

36 / 85

Total Strikes

14 / 56

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Curtis Blaydes	14 / 56	14 / 56	0 / 1	0
1	Sergei Pavlovich	36 / 85	36 / 85	0 / 0	0

Sergei Pavlovich

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights12

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19