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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Volkov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1538

Elo1535

Sergei PavlovichvsAlexander VolkovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Saturday, June 22, 2024Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Alexander Volkov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSergei Pavlovich: Pressure fightervsAlexander Volkov: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergei Pavlovich at -238 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
Sergei Pavlovich has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sergei Pavlovich

Red Corner

Alexander Volkov

Blue Corner

-238

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1538

Elo

1535

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'7"

213.36 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergei PavlovichW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Apr 23

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · May 26

latest

Alexander VolkovW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexandr Romanov · Mar 23

SUBvs Tai Tuivasa · Sep 23

vs Ciryl Gane · Dec 24

vs Jailton Almeida · Oct 25

DECvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergei PavlovichMetricAlexander Volkov

4.43

Strikes / min

4.84

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

55%

Strike defense

54%

0.48

TDs / 15 min

0.54

75%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap+1.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sergei PavlovichAlexander Volkov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)Alexander Volkov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergei PavlovichTargetAlexander Volkov

By target zone

32% acc · 83%

Head

39% acc · 42%

54% acc · 15%

Body

57% acc · 19%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

76% acc · 39%

By position

34% acc · 100%

Distance

52% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergei Pavlovich rounds

even

Alexander Volkov rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:15

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 134

Sig Strikes

83 / 159

34%

Sig Str %

52%

46 / 134

Total Strikes

83 / 160

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Volkov	26 / 50	26 / 50	0 / 0
1	Sergei Pavlovich	15 / 43	15 / 43	0 / 0
2	Alexander Volkov	31 / 55	31 / 55	0 / 0
2	Sergei Pavlovich	15 / 39	15 / 39	0 / 0
3	Alexander Volkov	26 / 54	26 / 55	0 / 0
3	Sergei Pavlovich	16 / 52	16 / 52	0 / 1

Sergei Pavlovich

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights12

Alexander Volkov

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights18