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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Michal Oleksiejczuk won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1467

Elo1508

Michal Oleksiejczuk editorial illustration

Sedriques DumasvsMichal OleksiejczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Saturday, April 12, 2025Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Michal Oleksiejczuk won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:49

Model Prediction: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michal Oleksiejczuk at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sedriques Dumas enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Michal Oleksiejczuk has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michal Oleksiejczuk (53.5%).
Sedriques Dumas has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sedriques Dumas

Red Corner

Michal Oleksiejczuk

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1467

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sedriques DumasL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nursulton Ruziboev · Mar 24

vs Denis Tiuliulin · Aug 24

vs Zach Reese · Sep 25

SUBvs Donte Johnson · Nov 25

SUBvs Jackson McVey · Apr 26

latest

Michal Oleksiejczuk

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 24

vs Shara Magomedov · Aug 24

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 25

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Feb 26

SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sedriques DumasMetricMichal Oleksiejczuk

1.97

Strikes / min

5.85

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

4.50

53%

Strike defense

59%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

1.02

33%

Takedown defense

52%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.67Δ 2.02 — meaningful gap+1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sedriques DumasMichal Oleksiejczuk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sedriques Dumas(8 fights)Michal Oleksiejczuk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.6|Blue +40.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sedriques DumasTargetMichal Oleksiejczuk

By target zone

0% acc

Head

55% acc · 79%

40% acc · 67%

Body

88% acc · 21%

33% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

12% acc · 100%

Distance

48% acc · 38%

Clinch

Ground

70% acc · 62%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sedriques Dumas rounds

even

Michal Oleksiejczuk rounds

Round 1Michal Oleksiejczuk edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 26

Sig Strikes

34 / 57

11%

Sig Str %

59%

3 / 26

Total Strikes

34 / 59

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michal Oleksiejczuk	34 / 57	34 / 59	0 / 0	0
1	Sedriques Dumas	3 / 26	3 / 26	0 / 0	0

Sedriques Dumas

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights9

Michal Oleksiejczuk

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18