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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Josh Fremd won · SUB R2

Elo1467

Elo1495

Sedriques DumasvsJosh FremdUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Saturday, March 11, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Josh Fremd won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:00

Model Prediction: Josh Fremd wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Josh Fremd wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Fremd at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sedriques Dumas enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Josh Fremd threatens submissions; Sedriques Dumas has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Sedriques Dumas

Red Corner

Josh Fremd

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1467

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sedriques DumasL4 streak

oldest →

vs Denis Tiuliulin · Aug 24

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Apr 25

vs Zach Reese · Sep 25

SUBvs Donte Johnson · Nov 25

SUBvs Jackson McVey · Apr 26

latest

Josh FremdL2 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Hernandez · Apr 22

SUBvs Tresean Gore · Oct 22

vs Jamie Pickett · Aug 23

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Sep 23

vs Andre Petroski · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sedriques DumasMetricJosh Fremd

1.97

Strikes / min

2.52

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

53%

Strike defense

47%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

0.66

33%

Takedown defense

30%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.67evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sedriques DumasJosh Fremd

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sedriques Dumas(8 fights)Josh Fremd(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.9|Blue +27.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sedriques DumasTargetJosh Fremd

By target zone

31% acc · 40%

Head

44% acc · 64%

40% acc · 10%

Body

86% acc · 18%

77% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

44% acc · 95%

Distance

49% acc · 82%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sedriques Dumas rounds

even

Josh Fremd rounds

Round 1Josh Fremd edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:41Control

Round 2Josh Fremd edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:07

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:46Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 44

Sig Strikes

33 / 61

44%

Sig Str %

54%

23 / 47

Total Strikes

48 / 78

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 2

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

4:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Fremd	27 / 50	33 / 58	1 / 1	1
1	Sedriques Dumas	14 / 30	17 / 33	0 / 1	0
2	Josh Fremd	6 / 11	15 / 20	1 / 1	1
2	Sedriques Dumas	6 / 14	6 / 14	0 / 0	0

Sedriques Dumas

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights9

Josh Fremd

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6