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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Julian Erosa won · SUB R3

Elo1517

Elo1495

Sean WoodsonvsJulian ErosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · Saturday, June 27, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Julian Erosa won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:44

Style matchupSean Woodson: Pressure fightervsJulian Erosa: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sean Woodson wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Julian Erosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Woodson at -455 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julian Erosa threatens submissions; Sean Woodson has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Sean Woodson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sean Woodson has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).
Sean Woodson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sean Woodson

Red Corner

Julian Erosa

Blue Corner

-455

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+325

(24%)

1517

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean Woodson

oldest →

vs Dennis Buzukja · Aug 23

vs Charles Jourdain · Jan 24

vs Alex Caceres · May 24

KOvs Fernando Padilla · Dec 24

KOvs Dan Ige · Apr 25

latest

Julian ErosaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24

SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24

KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25

vs Melquizael Costa · May 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean WoodsonMetricJulian Erosa

5.57

Strikes / min

6.18

4.18

Strikes absorbed / min

6.31

58%

Strike defense

48%

0.58

TDs / 15 min

1.73

84%

Takedown defense

61%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean WoodsonJulian Erosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Woodson(9 fights)Julian Erosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.3|Blue -22.3

Recent Form

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -153.0|Blue +153.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean WoodsonTargetJulian Erosa

By target zone

46% acc · 88%

Head

42% acc · 59%

70% acc · 7%

Body

56% acc · 21%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

87% acc · 19%

By position

102

48% acc · 96%

Distance

47% acc · 82%

60% acc · 3%

Clinch

70% acc · 18%

33% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Woodson rounds

even

Julian Erosa rounds

Round 1Sean Woodson edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Julian Erosa edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control0:00

59Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

21Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:40Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

106 / 219

Sig Strikes

103 / 206

48.3%

Sig Str %

48.3%

116 / 230

Total Strikes

107 / 210

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 6

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

1:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julian Erosa	23 / 55	26 / 58	0 / 1	0
1	Sean Woodson	37 / 76	40 / 79	0 / 0	0
2	Julian Erosa	59 / 110	59 / 110	0 / 1	0
2	Sean Woodson	46 / 98	53 / 105	0 / 0	0
3	Julian Erosa	21 / 41	22 / 42	3 / 4	1
3	Sean Woodson	23 / 45	23 / 46	0 / 0	0

Sean Woodson

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18