Featherweight

3 Rounds

Sean Woodson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1517

Elo1497

Sean WoodsonvsFernando PadillaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · Saturday, December 14, 2024Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Sean Woodson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:58

Style matchupSean Woodson: Pressure fightervsFernando Padilla: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sean Woodson wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Sean Woodson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Woodson at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fernando Padilla is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Sean Woodson has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Fernando Padilla threatens submissions; Sean Woodson has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Fernando Padilla has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sean Woodson

Red Corner

Fernando Padilla

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1517

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean Woodson

oldest →

KOvs Collin Anglin · Nov 21

vs Dennis Buzukja · Aug 23

vs Charles Jourdain · Jan 24

vs Alex Caceres · May 24

KOvs Dan Ige · Apr 25

latest

Fernando Padilla

oldest →

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 23

vs Kyle Nelson · Sep 23

SUBvs Luis Pajuelo · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean WoodsonMetricFernando Padilla

5.57

Strikes / min

6.07

4.18

Strikes absorbed / min

5.74

58%

Strike defense

52%

0.58

TDs / 15 min

0.00

84%

Takedown defense

100%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean WoodsonFernando Padilla

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Woodson(9 fights)Fernando Padilla(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.4|Blue -20.4

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean WoodsonTargetFernando Padilla

By target zone

55% acc · 92%

Head

24% acc · 64%

0% acc

Body

67% acc · 18%

75% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

52% acc · 95%

Distance

28% acc · 77%

Clinch

63% acc · 23%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Woodson rounds

even

Fernando Padilla rounds

Round 1Sean Woodson edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control1:03

Knockdowns1

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 71

Sig Strikes

22 / 69

53%

Sig Str %

31%

38 / 71

Total Strikes

24 / 72

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Fernando Padilla	22 / 69	24 / 72	0 / 0	0
1	Sean Woodson	38 / 71	38 / 71	0 / 0	0

Sean Woodson

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9

Fernando Padilla

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4