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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sean Strickland won · S-DEC R3

Elo1530

Elo1493

Sean StricklandvsTom BreeseUFC Prediction Result

UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · Saturday, June 4, 2016Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Sean Strickland won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSean Strickland: Pressure fightervsTom Breese: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Sean Strickland wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Sean Strickland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Strickland at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Tom Breese (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sean Strickland

Red Corner

Tom Breese

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1530

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean StricklandW2 streak

oldest →

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Jan 24

vs Paulo Costa · Jun 24

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Feb 25

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 26

DECvs Khamzat Chimaev · May 26

latest

Tom Breese

oldest →

vs Keita Nakamura · Feb 16

KOvs Daniel Kelly · May 18

KOvs Brendan Allen · Feb 20

KOvs KB Bhullar · Oct 20

SUBvs Omari Akhmedov · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean StricklandMetricTom Breese

5.98

Strikes / min

3.34

4.53

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

60%

Strike defense

60%

0.66

TDs / 15 min

0.00

68%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.45evenly matched on net striking+0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean StricklandTom Breese

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Strickland(10 fights)Tom Breese(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.3|Blue -37.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +6.0|Blue -6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean StricklandTargetTom Breese

By target zone

28% acc · 70%

Head

30% acc · 53%

81% acc · 18%

Body

65% acc · 39%

90% acc · 12%

Leg

71% acc · 8%

By position

33% acc · 89%

Distance

41% acc · 100%

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

67% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Strickland rounds

even

Tom Breese rounds

Round 1Tom Breese edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:18

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 207

Sig Strikes

62 / 153

34.3%

Sig Str %

40.3%

77 / 211

Total Strikes

62 / 153

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tom Breese	21 / 57	21 / 57	0 / 0
1	Sean Strickland	15 / 50	15 / 50	0 / 0
2	Tom Breese	23 / 50	23 / 50	0 / 0
2	Sean Strickland	29 / 81	29 / 81	0 / 0
3	Tom Breese	18 / 46	18 / 46	0 / 3
3	Sean Strickland	29 / 76	33 / 80	0 / 2

Sean Strickland

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25

Tom Breese

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8