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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Sean Strickland won · S-DEC R5

Elo1530

Elo1522

Sean StricklandvsPaulo CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Saturday, June 1, 2024Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Sean Strickland won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupSean Strickland: Pressure fightervsPaulo Costa: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sean Strickland wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Sean Strickland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Strickland has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sean Strickland has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sean Strickland

Red Corner

Paulo Costa

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1530

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean StricklandW2 streak

oldest →

vs Israel Adesanya · Sep 23

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Jan 24

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Feb 25

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 26

DECvs Khamzat Chimaev · May 26

latest

Paulo CostaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marvin Vettori · Oct 21

vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22

vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24

vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean StricklandMetricPaulo Costa

5.98

Strikes / min

6.15

4.53

Strikes absorbed / min

5.96

60%

Strike defense

49%

0.66

TDs / 15 min

0.30

68%

Takedown defense

77%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.45Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean StricklandPaulo Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Strickland(10 fights)Paulo Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.4|Blue -8.4

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean StricklandTargetPaulo Costa

By target zone

104

40% acc · 57%

Head

28% acc · 18%

53% acc · 37%

Body

76% acc · 53%

65% acc · 6%

Leg

84% acc · 29%

By position

179

45% acc · 98%

Distance

157

59% acc · 99%

60% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Strickland rounds

even

Paulo Costa rounds

Round 1Paulo Costa edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:01

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Paulo Costa edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

182 / 402

Sig Strikes

158 / 266

44.2%

Sig Str %

60%

182 / 402

Total Strikes

158 / 266

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paulo Costa	31 / 43	31 / 43	0 / 0
1	Sean Strickland	24 / 56	24 / 56	0 / 0
2	Paulo Costa	32 / 49	32 / 49	0 / 0
2	Sean Strickland	25 / 70	25 / 70	0 / 0
3	Paulo Costa	34 / 54	34 / 54	0 / 0
3	Sean Strickland	45 / 83	45 / 83	0 / 0
4	Sean Strickland	39 / 88	39 / 88	0 / 0
4	Paulo Costa	29 / 53	29 / 53	0 / 0
5	Paulo Costa	32 / 67	32 / 67	0 / 0
5	Sean Strickland	49 / 105	49 / 105	0 / 0

Sean Strickland

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25

Paulo Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11