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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Dricus Du Plessis won · S-DEC R5
Elo1530
Sean Strickland
Elo1542
Dricus Du Plessis editorial illustration

Sean StricklandvsDricus Du PlessisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · Saturday, January 20, 2024Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Dricus Du Plessis won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupSean Strickland: Pressure fightervsDricus Du Plessis: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis wins(86.3%)

Actual result: Dricus Du Plessis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dricus Du Plessis at -112 American odds

+$89 profit

$189 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sean Strickland has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Dricus Du Plessis (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Sean Strickland
Red Corner
VS
Dricus Du Plessis
Blue Corner
-108
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-112
(53%)
1530
Elo
1542
35
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'1"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean StricklandW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Israel Adesanya · Sep 23
W
vs Paulo Costa · Jun 24
L
vs Dricus Du Plessis · Feb 25
W
KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 26
W
DECvs Khamzat Chimaev · May 26
latest
Dricus Du Plessis
oldest →
W
KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 23
W
SUBvs Israel Adesanya · Aug 24
W
vs Sean Strickland · Feb 25
L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Aug 25
W
DECvs Kamaru Usman · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean StricklandMetricDricus Du Plessis
5.98
Strikes / min
5.18
4.53
Strikes absorbed / min
4.33
60%
Strike defense
52%
0.66
TDs / 15 min
2.22
68%
Takedown defense
34%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.45evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1653 vs 1622Strikes6.0 vs 6.2Takedowns0.8 vs 3.0Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.90Form0.6 vs 1.1
Sean StricklandDricus Du Plessis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901508152515431560← oldermost recent →
Sean Strickland(10 fights)Dricus Du Plessis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -11.7|Blue +11.7
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -63.0|Blue +63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean StricklandTargetDricus Du Plessis

By target zone

157
41% acc · 91%
Head
81
29% acc · 59%
10
67% acc · 6%
Body
32
86% acc · 23%
6
100% acc · 3%
Leg
24
71% acc · 18%

By position

173
42% acc · 100%
Distance
134
39% acc · 98%
0
Clinch
3
60% acc · 2%
0
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Sean Strickland rounds
0
even
2
Dricus Du Plessis rounds
Round 1Sean Strickland edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:28Control
Round 2Dricus Du Plessis edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:22Control
Round 3Sean Strickland edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns0
Control0:00
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Dricus Du Plessis edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control0:00
29Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
1:18Control
Round 5Sean Strickland edged it
Sig. strikes53
Takedowns0
Control0:00
35Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
173 / 408
Sig Strikes
137 / 354
41.2%
Sig Str %
38.2%
183 / 419
Total Strikes
140 / 358
0 / 0
TDs
6 / 11
—
TD %
56.5%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
2:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dricus Du Plessis18 / 5119 / 522 / 30
1Sean Strickland34 / 7539 / 800 / 00
2Dricus Du Plessis26 / 6026 / 601 / 10
2Sean Strickland22 / 6226 / 660 / 00
3Dricus Du Plessis29 / 8429 / 850 / 00
3Sean Strickland31 / 8731 / 870 / 00
4Sean Strickland33 / 8534 / 870 / 00
4Dricus Du Plessis29 / 7331 / 753 / 50
5Dricus Du Plessis35 / 8635 / 860 / 20
5Sean Strickland53 / 9953 / 990 / 00

Sean Strickland

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights25

Dricus Du Plessis

StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights11