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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Sean Strickland won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1530

Anthony Hernandez editorial illustration

Sean StricklandvsAnthony HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Saturday, February 21, 2026Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Sean Strickland won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:23

Style matchupSean Strickland: Pressure fightervsAnthony Hernandez: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Anthony Hernandez wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Sean Strickland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Hernandez at -275 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Hernandez enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Sean Strickland

Red Corner

Anthony Hernandez

Blue Corner

+225

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-275

(73%)

1530

Elo

1530

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean Strickland

oldest →

vs Israel Adesanya · Sep 23

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Jan 24

vs Paulo Costa · Jun 24

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Feb 25

DECvs Khamzat Chimaev · May 26

latest

Anthony HernandezW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · May 23

SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Feb 24

KOvs Michel Pereira · Oct 24

vs Brendan Allen · Feb 25

SUBvs Roman Dolidze · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean StricklandMetricAnthony Hernandez

5.98

Strikes / min

4.57

4.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

60%

Strike defense

51%

0.66

TDs / 15 min

5.88

68%

Takedown defense

68%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.45evenly matched on net striking+1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean StricklandAnthony Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Strickland(10 fights)Anthony Hernandez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean StricklandTargetAnthony Hernandez

By target zone

42% acc · 85%

Head

31% acc · 53%

64% acc · 8%

Body

81% acc · 24%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

101

44% acc · 92%

Distance

46% acc · 100%

67% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

88% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Strickland rounds

even

Anthony Hernandez rounds

Round 1Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 2Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:08

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

110 / 241

Sig Strikes

55 / 122

45.7%

Sig Str %

42.7%

111 / 242

Total Strikes

57 / 124

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Anthony Hernandez	23 / 48	23 / 48	0 / 1
1	Sean Strickland	32 / 90	33 / 91	0 / 0
2	Anthony Hernandez	23 / 47	23 / 47	0 / 0
2	Sean Strickland	37 / 79	37 / 79	0 / 0
3	Anthony Hernandez	9 / 27	11 / 29	0 / 0
3	Sean Strickland	41 / 72	41 / 72	0 / 0

Sean Strickland

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25

Anthony Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12