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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Alex Pereira won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1530

Elo1523

Sean StricklandvsAlex PereiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Saturday, July 2, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Pereira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:36

Style matchupSean Strickland: Pressure fightervsAlex Pereira: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sean Strickland wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Alex Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Strickland at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Sean Strickland

Red Corner

Alex Pereira

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1530

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

193.04 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean StricklandW2 streak

oldest →

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Jan 24

vs Paulo Costa · Jun 24

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Feb 25

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 26

DECvs Khamzat Chimaev · May 26

latest

Alex Pereira

oldest →

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 24

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 25

KOvs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 25

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean StricklandMetricAlex Pereira

5.98

Strikes / min

5.16

4.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

60%

Strike defense

53%

0.66

TDs / 15 min

0.11

68%

Takedown defense

79%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.45evenly matched on net striking+1.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean StricklandAlex Pereira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Strickland(10 fights)Alex Pereira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.8|Blue -6.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean StricklandTargetAlex Pereira

By target zone

45% acc · 60%

Head

33% acc · 20%

75% acc · 40%

Body

86% acc · 48%

0% acc

Leg

73% acc · 32%

By position

52% acc · 100%

Distance

63% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Strickland rounds

even

Alex Pereira rounds

Round 1Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 29

Sig Strikes

25 / 40

51%

Sig Str %

62%

15 / 29

Total Strikes

25 / 40

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Pereira	25 / 40	25 / 40	0 / 0	0
1	Sean Strickland	15 / 29	15 / 29	0 / 0	0

Sean Strickland

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25

Alex Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12