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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sean Spencer won · U-DEC R3

Elo1358

Elo1514

Sean SpencervsDrew DoberUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · Saturday, November 30, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sean Spencer won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSean Spencer: Pressure fightervsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sean Spencer wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Sean Spencer wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Spencer at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Spencer enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sean Spencer has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sean Spencer

Red Corner

Drew Dober

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1358

Elo

1514

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean SpencerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Garcia · Mar 14

vs Paulo Thiago · Sep 14

vs Cathal Pendred · Jan 15

KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 16

SUBvs Yancy Medeiros · Sep 16

latest

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean SpencerMetricDrew Dober

4.24

Strikes / min

4.48

4.02

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

60%

Strike defense

53%

0.14

TDs / 15 min

0.61

68%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.22evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean SpencerDrew Dober

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Spencer(8 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -155.9|Blue +155.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean SpencerTargetDrew Dober

By target zone

31% acc · 67%

Head

18% acc · 56%

76% acc · 25%

Body

54% acc · 21%

90% acc · 9%

Leg

93% acc · 23%

By position

35% acc · 77%

Distance

22% acc · 70%

63% acc · 23%

Clinch

56% acc · 30%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Spencer rounds

even

Drew Dober rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 2Sean Spencer edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:20

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 3Sean Spencer edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:32

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

105 / 270

Sig Strikes

61 / 226

38%

Sig Str %

26.3%

109 / 274

Total Strikes

67 / 236

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 11

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:52

Ctrl Time

3:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Drew Dober	25 / 78	27 / 82	0 / 3
1	Sean Spencer	28 / 80	29 / 81	0 / 0
2	Drew Dober	16 / 70	20 / 75	0 / 2
2	Sean Spencer	30 / 78	32 / 80	0 / 0
3	Drew Dober	20 / 78	20 / 79	0 / 6
3	Sean Spencer	47 / 112	48 / 113	0 / 1

Sean Spencer

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26