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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chas Skelly won · U-DEC R3

Elo1411

Elo1495

Sean SorianovsChas SkellyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi · Friday, September 5, 2014Ledyard, Connecticut, USA

Official fight result

Chas Skelly won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Chas Skelly wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Chas Skelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chas Skelly at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Soriano enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Chas Skelly threatens submissions; Sean Soriano has lost 60% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Sean Soriano

Red Corner

Chas Skelly

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1411

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean SorianoL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tatsuya Kawajiri · Jan 14

SUBvs Charles Rosa · Jan 15

SUBvs Christos Giagos · May 21

vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Nov 21

latest

Chas SkellyW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Feb 17

KOvs Jason Knight · May 17

vs Bobby Moffett · Nov 18

vs Jordan Griffin · Sep 19

KOvs Mark Striegl · Feb 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean SorianoMetricChas Skelly

3.18

Strikes / min

2.01

2.14

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

56%

Strike defense

49%

1.33

TDs / 15 min

1.74

52%

Takedown defense

39%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

2.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04Δ 2.24 — meaningful gap-1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean SorianoChas Skelly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Soriano(5 fights)Chas Skelly(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -83.7|Blue +83.7

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +231.0|Blue -231.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean SorianoTargetChas Skelly

By target zone

50% acc · 79%

Head

36% acc · 92%

29% acc · 8%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

50% acc · 50%

Distance

19% acc · 38%

71% acc · 21%

Clinch

67% acc · 15%

41% acc · 29%

Ground

86% acc · 46%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Soriano rounds

even

Chas Skelly rounds

Round 1Chas Skelly edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:15

1Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:28Control

Round 2Chas Skelly edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:58Control

Round 3Sean Soriano edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:45

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 48

Sig Strikes

13 / 36

50.3%

Sig Str %

32.7%

34 / 61

Total Strikes

62 / 90

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 7

—

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:00

Ctrl Time

9:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chas Skelly	1 / 4	19 / 22	2 / 3	2
1	Sean Soriano	4 / 14	9 / 21	0 / 0	0
2	Chas Skelly	8 / 20	29 / 46	1 / 2	3
2	Sean Soriano	9 / 20	9 / 20	0 / 0	0
3	Chas Skelly	4 / 12	14 / 22	1 / 2	2
3	Sean Soriano	11 / 14	16 / 20	0 / 0	0

Sean Soriano

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5

Chas Skelly

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12