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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Sean Sherk won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1385

Sean SherkvsEvan DunhamUFC Prediction Result

UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · Saturday, September 25, 2010Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

Sean Sherk won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSean Sherk: WrestlervsEvan Dunham: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Sean Sherk wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Sean Sherk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Sherk at +167 American odds

+$167 profit

$267 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Evan Dunham has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sean Sherk

Red Corner

Evan Dunham

Blue Corner

+167

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-178

(64%)

1490

Elo

1385

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'10"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean SherkNo prior UFC fights on record.

Evan DunhamL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18

KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18

SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean SherkMetricEvan Dunham

2.17

Strikes / min

5.33

2.71

Strikes absorbed / min

3.54

55%

Strike defense

61%

4.09

TDs / 15 min

1.82

56%

Takedown defense

79%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 2.33 — meaningful gap+1.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean SherkEvan Dunham

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Sherk(1 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +105.2|Blue -105.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +48.0|Blue -48.0

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean SherkTargetEvan Dunham

By target zone

29% acc · 82%

Head

44% acc · 87%

75% acc · 8%

Body

64% acc · 12%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

29% acc · 82%

Distance

44% acc · 92%

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

75% acc · 8%

100% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Sherk rounds

even

Evan Dunham rounds

Round 1Sean Sherk edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control3:26

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 2Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control2:31

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control2:13

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 115

Sig Strikes

75 / 164

42.3%

Sig Str %

41.3%

81 / 165

Total Strikes

123 / 216

5 / 18

TDs

0 / 0

35%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:10

Ctrl Time

0:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Evan Dunham	3 / 9	8 / 14	0 / 0	2
1	Sean Sherk	6 / 9	35 / 40	2 / 3	0
2	Evan Dunham	28 / 63	42 / 79	0 / 0	4
2	Sean Sherk	15 / 42	23 / 51	2 / 8	0
3	Evan Dunham	44 / 92	73 / 123	0 / 0	1
3	Sean Sherk	17 / 64	23 / 74	1 / 7	0

Sean Sherk

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights1

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17