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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Steven Asplund won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1472

Elo1499

Sean SharafvsSteven AsplundUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · Saturday, December 13, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Steven Asplund won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:49

Style matchupSean Sharaf: Pressure fightervsSteven Asplund: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Steven Asplund wins(79.9%)

Actual result: Steven Asplund wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steven Asplund at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steven Asplund is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Sean Sharaf has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Steven Asplund has 100pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sean Sharaf

Red Corner

Steven Asplund

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-215

(68%)

1472

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'5"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean Sharaf

oldest →

KOvs Junior Tafa · Oct 24

latest

Steven Asplund

oldest →

vs Vitor Petrino · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean SharafMetricSteven Asplund

7.41

Strikes / min

10.05

15.00

Strikes absorbed / min

6.64

42%

Strike defense

50%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

0.00

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-7.59Δ 11.00 — meaningful gap+3.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean SharafSteven Asplund

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Sharaf(2 fights)Steven Asplund(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.1|Blue +27.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean SharafTargetSteven Asplund

By target zone

37% acc · 76%

Head

154

56% acc · 91%

83% acc · 23%

Body

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

44% acc · 100%

Distance

166

58% acc · 98%

0% acc

Clinch

57% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Sharaf rounds

even

Steven Asplund rounds

Round 1Steven Asplund edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

71Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Steven Asplund edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

99Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 153

Sig Strikes

170 / 292

41.5%

Sig Str %

57%

66 / 154

Total Strikes

172 / 294

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Steven Asplund	71 / 137	72 / 138	0 / 0
1	Sean Sharaf	43 / 89	43 / 90	0 / 0
2	Steven Asplund	99 / 155	100 / 156	0 / 0
2	Sean Sharaf	23 / 64	23 / 64	0 / 1

Sean Sharaf

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights2

Steven Asplund

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights2