← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sean Pierson won · M-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1358

Sean PiersonvsKenny RobertsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · Saturday, June 15, 2013Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Official fight result

Sean Pierson won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSean Pierson: Well-roundedvsKenny Robertson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Sean Pierson wins(67.7%)

Actual result: Sean Pierson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Pierson at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Pierson has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Sean Pierson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sean Pierson

Red Corner

Kenny Robertson

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1490

Elo

1358

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean PiersonW2 streak

oldest →

vs Matthew Riddle · Dec 10

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Apr 11

vs Dong Hyun Kim · Dec 11

vs Jake Hecht · Jun 12

vs Lance Benoist · Sep 12

latest

Kenny RobertsonL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Thiago Perpetuo · Mar 14

vs Ildemar Alcantara · Jul 14

KOvs Sultan Aliev · Jan 15

vs Ben Saunders · Jul 15

vs Roan Carneiro · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean PiersonMetricKenny Robertson

3.84

Strikes / min

3.72

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

64%

Strike defense

52%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

1.37

66%

Takedown defense

57%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.11evenly matched on net striking+0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean PiersonKenny Robertson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Pierson(6 fights)Kenny Robertson(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.2|Blue -132.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean PiersonTargetKenny Robertson

By target zone

37% acc · 89%

Head

48% acc · 72%

67% acc · 6%

Body

77% acc · 15%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

36% acc · 81%

Distance

56% acc · 75%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

60% acc · 9%

44% acc · 11%

Ground

45% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Pierson rounds

even

Kenny Robertson rounds

Round 1Kenny Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:18

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 2Kenny Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:05

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:14Control

Round 3Kenny Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:10

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:42Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 92

Sig Strikes

65 / 119

34%

Sig Str %

57%

58 / 119

Total Strikes

139 / 218

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 6

TD %

10%

Sub Att

Rev

1:33

Ctrl Time

6:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kenny Robertson	19 / 43	24 / 51	1 / 5
1	Sean Pierson	17 / 38	20 / 41	0 / 0
2	Kenny Robertson	25 / 48	32 / 61	0 / 1
2	Sean Pierson	17 / 44	36 / 68	0 / 0
3	Kenny Robertson	21 / 28	83 / 106	0 / 0
3	Sean Pierson	2 / 10	2 / 10	0 / 1

Sean Pierson

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Kenny Robertson

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9