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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sean O'Malley won · KO/TKO

Elo1533

Elo1398

Sean O'MalleyvsThomas AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Saturday, March 27, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sean O'Malley won

KO/TKO

Style matchupSean O'Malley: StrikervsThomas Almeida: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Sean O'Malley wins(82.3%)

Actual result: Sean O'Malley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean O'Malley at -370 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thomas Almeida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sean O'Malley is a KO finisher (58% of wins). Thomas Almeida has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Thomas Almeida has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sean O'Malley (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Sean O'Malley

Red Corner

Thomas Almeida

Blue Corner

-370

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1533

Elo

1398

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean O'MalleyW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marlon Vera · Mar 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 24

SUBvs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 25

vs Song Yadong · Jan 26

KOvs Aiemann Zahabi · Jun 26

latest

Thomas AlmeidaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · May 16

KOvs Albert Morales · Nov 16

vs Jimmie Rivera · Jul 17

KOvs Rob Font · Jan 18

vs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean O'MalleyMetricThomas Almeida

6.05

Strikes / min

4.84

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

4.93

60%

Strike defense

61%

0.24

TDs / 15 min

0.17

60%

Takedown defense

75%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.65Δ 2.74 — meaningful gap-0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean O'MalleyThomas Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean O'Malley(10 fights)Thomas Almeida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.2|Blue -135.2

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean O'MalleyTargetThomas Almeida

By target zone

41% acc · 48%

Head

21% acc · 36%

83% acc · 28%

Body

33% acc · 12%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

68% acc · 52%

By position

57% acc · 97%

Distance

35% acc · 92%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

40% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean O'Malley rounds

even

Thomas Almeida rounds

Round 1Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

86 / 149

Sig Strikes

25 / 71

56%

Sig Str %

34%

91 / 157

Total Strikes

25 / 71

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thomas Almeida	8 / 22	8 / 22	1 / 2
1	Sean O'Malley	36 / 58	36 / 58	0 / 0
2	Thomas Almeida	12 / 27	12 / 27	0 / 0
2	Sean O'Malley	17 / 40	22 / 48	0 / 0
3	Thomas Almeida	5 / 22	5 / 22	0 / 0
3	Sean O'Malley	33 / 51	33 / 51	0 / 0

Sean O'Malley

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14

Thomas Almeida

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10